{"schema_version":"GreyResearchObject 1.2","id":"GSX:SRD-003","slug":"consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","series_number":"03","paper_number":"03","title":"Consumption Today or Productive Capital Tomorrow?","version":"1.0","status":"published","primary_question":"What is the timing and distributional trade-off between relief today and productive capital tomorrow?","summary":"The timing and distributional trade-off between relief and investment.","topics":["grants","industrialisation","fiscal-policy","south-africa"],"geographies":["South Africa"],"keywords":["Social grants","Industrialisation","Fiscal policy","South Africa","consumption","today","productive","capital","tomorrow","timing","distributional","trade","off","relief"],"related_questions":["Who bears the wait if grant spending is redirected toward investment?","How does the R350 choice split between consumption and productive capital?"],"answer":{"conditional_answer":"At a 6 percent real discount rate, the best industrial case overtakes the central value of the cash transfer in 2040 when the surviving public asset is counted, and in 2051 when only operating benefits are counted.","evidence_status":"modelled","assumption_ids":["GSX:SRD-003:A01","GSX:SRD-003:A02","GSX:SRD-003:A03"],"result_ids":["GSX:SRD-003:R01"],"main_limitation":"There is no universal year when a factory becomes better than a cash transfer. 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Productive asset paths under the average deployment and survival assumptions. The curves differ only in real growth after depreciation, making maintenance and reinvestment the hinge.","alt_text":"Reinvestment sensitivity","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/consumption-or-capital/assets/reinvestment-sensitivity.png","data_file":"research/source/consumption-or-capital/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:SRD-003:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-003:PDF"]},{"id":"F08","title":"Benefit timing","caption":"Figure 8. 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