{"schema_version":"GreyResearchObject 1.2","id":"GSX:POP-003","slug":"does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","series_number":"02","paper_number":"03","title":"Does Raising the Retirement Age Actually Work?","version":"1.0","status":"published","primary_question":"Does raising the retirement age still work once youth unemployment, productivity, and disability are taken into account?","summary":"Later retirement tested against youth unemployment, productivity and disability.","topics":["retirement","unemployment","fiscal-policy","south-africa"],"geographies":["South Africa"],"keywords":["Retirement","Unemployment","Fiscal policy","South Africa","raising","retirement","age","actually","work","still","once","youth","unemployment","productivity","disability","taken","account"],"related_questions":["What happens to a higher retirement age when younger workers are unemployed?","How do productivity and disability change the case for a later retirement age?"],"answer":{"conditional_answer":"In the average scenario, raising the comparison retirement age from 60 to 65 produces a cumulative modelled public gain of R213 billion for a one-million-person cohort. Age 70 produces R369 billion and age 75 produces R448 billion. The last five-year step adds R79 billion, about half the gain from moving from 65 to 70.","evidence_status":"modelled","assumption_ids":["GSX:POP-003:A01","GSX:POP-003:A02"],"result_ids":["GSX:POP-003:R01"],"main_limitation":"This is a modelled public balance, not a forecast and not a recommendation that every occupation retire at one age. Age 65 is fiscally robust in the manuscript's three labour-market cases. Age 70 and age 75 need the employment and disability conditions stated in the paper. The gain can come from fewer years of old-age support as well as from extra tax-paying years.","sensitivity":"high"},"entities":["South Africa","retirement","unemployment","fiscal-policy","south-africa"],"methods":[{"id":"GSX:POP-003:M01","name":"Retirement-age cohort","model_class":"scenario model","purpose":"One exercise follows a continuously employed private saver. The other follows one million people from 60 to the tested retirement age, with occupation-specific wages, capacity, and disability. Public results are cumulative balances against retirement at 60. Youth job-years use the scenario's displacement assumption.","implementation_file":"research/source/retirement_age_model.py"}],"parameters":[{"id":"P01","name":"Comparison age","symbol":"see the manuscript","description":"Age 60 is the common comparison point. Ages 65, 70, and 75 are policy experiments. They are not a description of one current retirement age for every occupation.","value":"60","unit":"years, baseline retirement age","price_year":"2026","scenario_values":{"central":"60"},"source_ids":["GSX:POP-003:PDF"]}],"equations":["The manuscript states the accounting identities in prose. No separate machine equation list is published."],"scenarios":[{"id":"S01","name":"Average scenario, one-million-person cohort, versus retirement at 60","role":"baseline","description":"Relative to retirement at 60, the average scenario produces a cumulative modelled public gain of R213 billion at 65, R369 billion at 70, and R448 billion at 75. 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It is not a separately catalogued manuscript issue date.","authors":[{"name":"Pakang Senosha","affiliation":"University of Pretoria","slug":"pakang-senosha"}],"extraction_status":"full_text_claim_led","manuscript":{"study_id":"GSX:POP-003","source_path":"research/source/retirement-age/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work.md","source_sha256":"689633f7e00b8a8b954e5995888069447885d7d50024886fda8f03b8d0e5ad8b","source_bytes":23587,"character_count":23587,"word_count":3395,"headings":[{"level":1,"title":"Does Raising the Retirement Age Actually Work?","slug":"does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work","line":1},{"level":2,"title":"Pension arithmetic, job competition and the limits of a single retirement age","slug":"pension-arithmetic-job-competition-and-the-limits-of-a-single-retirement-age","line":2},{"level":1,"title":"Part I: The finding","slug":"part-i-the-finding","line":4},{"level":1,"title":"Part II: What does \"work\" mean?","slug":"part-ii-what-does-work-mean","line":23},{"level":1,"title":"Part III: The model","slug":"part-iii-the-model","line":41},{"level":1,"title":"Part IV: The private pension arithmetic","slug":"part-iv-the-private-pension-arithmetic","line":58},{"level":1,"title":"Part V: A legal age does not create a job","slug":"part-v-a-legal-age-does-not-create-a-job","line":72},{"level":1,"title":"Part VI: The public-finance result","slug":"part-vi-the-public-finance-result","line":88},{"level":1,"title":"Part VII: Where the fiscal gain comes from","slug":"part-vii-where-the-fiscal-gain-comes-from","line":106},{"level":1,"title":"Part VIII: Do older workers occupy young people's jobs?","slug":"part-viii-do-older-workers-occupy-young-people-s-jobs","line":120},{"level":1,"title":"Part IX: General equilibrium changes the answer","slug":"part-ix-general-equilibrium-changes-the-answer","line":134},{"level":1,"title":"Part X: Healthspan and occupation","slug":"part-x-healthspan-and-occupation","line":150},{"level":1,"title":"Part XI: A separate retirement-job market","slug":"part-xi-a-separate-retirement-job-market","line":167},{"level":1,"title":"Part XII: The policy answer","slug":"part-xii-the-policy-answer","line":187},{"level":1,"title":"Notes: Scope, limitations and sources","slug":"notes-scope-limitations-and-sources","line":207}]},"claims":[{"id":"GSX:POP-003:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"In the average scenario, raising the comparison retirement age from 60 to 65 produces a cumulative modelled public gain of R213 billion for a one-million-person cohort. 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