{"id":"GSX:POP-003:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"In the average scenario, raising the comparison retirement age from 60 to 65 produces a cumulative modelled public gain of R213 billion for a one-million-person cohort. Age 70 produces R369 billion and age 75 produces R448 billion. The last five-year step adds R79 billion, about half the gain from moving from 65 to 70.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:POP-003:A01","GSX:POP-003:A02"],"result":"GSX:POP-003:R01","results":["GSX:POP-003:R01"],"sensitivity":"high","main_limitation":"This is a modelled public balance, not a forecast and not a recommendation that every occupation retire at one age. Age 65 is fiscally robust in the manuscript's three labour-market cases. Age 70 and age 75 need the employment and disability conditions stated in the paper. The gain can come from fewer years of old-age support as well as from extra tax-paying years.","source_study":"GSX:POP-003","version":"1.0","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work/claims/C01","supported_by":["GSX:POP-003:PDF"],"contradicted_by":[],"qualifies":[],"contradicts":[]}