{"schema_version":"GreyResearchObject 1.2","id":"GSX:POP-005","slug":"emergency-ageing-austerity","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","series_number":"02","paper_number":"05","title":"Emergency Ageing Austerity","version":"1.0","status":"published","primary_question":"Which policy packages for closing an ageing-related fiscal deficit are examined for lower welfare loss?","summary":"Policy packages for closing an ageing-related fiscal deficit with lower welfare loss.","topics":["fiscal-policy","retirement","population-decline","south-africa"],"geographies":["South Africa"],"keywords":["Fiscal policy","Retirement","Population decline","South Africa","emergency","ageing","austerity","which","policy","packages","closing","related","fiscal","deficit","examined","lower","welfare","loss"],"related_questions":["How can an ageing-related fiscal deficit be closed?","What is the welfare comparison among emergency responses to demographic fiscal pressure?"],"answer":{"conditional_answer":"Among five packages that each close a hypothetical R150 billion annual ageing gap, the balanced transition has the lowest modelled welfare-loss index, 64.5. The low-visible-pain package, which leans on inflation, diffuse cuts, and continuing borrowing, scores 107.3 and leaves about R720 billion of emergency debt after ten years.","evidence_status":"modelled","assumption_ids":["GSX:POP-005:A01","GSX:POP-005:A02"],"result_ids":["GSX:POP-005:R01","GSX:POP-005:R02"],"main_limitation":"The R150 billion gap is a stress test, not a forecast of today's deficit. The welfare scores are internal model indexes, not percentages and not estimates of national wellbeing. The manuscript does not declare any package the single correct answer.","sensitivity":"high"},"entities":["South Africa","fiscal-policy","retirement","population-decline","south-africa"],"methods":[{"id":"GSX:POP-005:M01","name":"Ageing-austerity package comparison","model_class":"scenario model","purpose":"The model asks capped levers to close one annual gap and scores five packages on an internal welfare-loss index, political resistance, year-one borrowing, and debt after ten years. 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No separate open licence is stated."}],"figures":[{"id":"F01","title":"Intervention capacity","caption":"Figure 1. Grey bars show mature annual fiscal capacity; coral bars show the first-year effect. Higher contributions, retirement ages and indexation changes need time.","alt_text":"Intervention capacity","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/emergency-ageing-austerity/assets/intervention-capacity.png","data_file":"research/source/emergency-ageing-austerity/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-005:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-005:PDF"]},{"id":"F02","title":"Package composition","caption":"Figure 2. Mature annual contribution to the R150 billion gap. \"Borrowing\" is the annual portion that remains unclosed structurally even after the package matures.","alt_text":"Package composition","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/emergency-ageing-austerity/assets/package-composition.png","data_file":"research/source/emergency-ageing-austerity/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-005:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-005:PDF"]},{"id":"F03","title":"Distributional incidence","caption":"Figure 3. Shares refer to weighted welfare loss, not rands of tax or spending. 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