{"id":"GSX:POP-005:A01","local_id":"A01","name":"Stress-test gap","statement":"The study imposes a hypothetical R150 billion annual ageing-related fiscal gap in constant 2026 rand. The figure is a stress-test target, about 5.6 percent of the R2.67 trillion in spending cited from the 2026 Budget Speech. It is not a forecast of the current deficit.","value":"150","unit":"billion constant 2026 rand per year","type":"model assumption","provenance":"Manuscript stress-test design","evidence_strength":"illustrative target","sensitivity":"high","alternatives":["A larger or smaller gap"],"href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/emergency-ageing-austerity/assumptions/A01"}