{"id":"GSX:POP-005:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"Among five packages that each close a hypothetical R150 billion annual ageing gap, the balanced transition has the lowest modelled welfare-loss index, 64.5. The low-visible-pain package, which leans on inflation, diffuse cuts, and continuing borrowing, scores 107.3 and leaves about R720 billion of emergency debt after ten years.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:POP-005:A01","GSX:POP-005:A02"],"result":"GSX:POP-005:R01","results":["GSX:POP-005:R01","GSX:POP-005:R02"],"sensitivity":"high","main_limitation":"The R150 billion gap is a stress test, not a forecast of today's deficit. The welfare scores are internal model indexes, not percentages and not estimates of national wellbeing. The manuscript does not declare any package the single correct answer.","source_study":"GSX:POP-005","version":"1.0","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/emergency-ageing-austerity/claims/C01","supported_by":["GSX:POP-005:PDF"],"contradicted_by":[],"qualifies":[],"contradicts":[]}