{"id":"GSX:POP-012:A01","local_id":"A01","name":"Common 2050 shock","statement":"The shock combines a severe pandemic, war and security mobilisation, and a recession. The immediate financing need is 14 percent of shocked-year GDP, about R1.23 trillion in constant 2026 rand.","value":"1.23","unit":"trillion constant 2026 rand","type":"model assumption","provenance":"Manuscript Part I","evidence_strength":"scenario","sensitivity":"high","alternatives":["A smaller or larger shock"],"href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/extreme-fiscal-pressure/assumptions/A01"}