{"id":"GSX:POP-012:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"Every modelled path closes the first-year accounting gap of about R1.23 trillion. In the guardrailed case that ends in 2052, real output in 2080 is 1.2 percent below the no-shock path and the present value of lost output from 2050 to 2080 is R3.7 trillion.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:POP-012:A01","GSX:POP-012:A02"],"result":"GSX:POP-012:R01","results":["GSX:POP-012:R01"],"sensitivity":"high","main_limitation":"This is a counterfactual model, not a forecast and not legal advice. Closing the accounting gap does not create the doctors, food, energy, tax capacity or pension wealth that the shock removes.","source_study":"GSX:POP-012","version":"1.0","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/extreme-fiscal-pressure/claims/C01","supported_by":["GSX:POP-012:PDF"],"contradicted_by":[],"qualifies":[],"contradicts":[]}