{"id":"GSX:POP-012:C03","local_id":"C03","claim":"The permanent-suspension path shows an official debt ratio of 70 percent of GDP together with an augmented public burden of 165 percent of GDP and real output 42 percent below the no-shock path.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:POP-012:A01","GSX:POP-012:A02","GSX:POP-012:A03"],"result":"GSX:POP-012:R03","results":["GSX:POP-012:R03"],"sensitivity":"high","main_limitation":"The manuscript models this path as constitutional rupture. Apparent success on the official debt ratio is produced by concealing pension losses, arrears and deferred maintenance.","source_study":"GSX:POP-012","version":"1.0","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/extreme-fiscal-pressure/claims/C03","supported_by":["GSX:POP-012:PDF"],"contradicted_by":[],"qualifies":[],"contradicts":[]}