{"schema_version":"GreyResearchObject 1.2","id":"GSX:POP-009","slug":"how-to-shrink-a-country-without-breaking-it","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","series_number":"02","paper_number":"09","title":"How to Shrink a Country Without Breaking It","version":"1.0","status":"published","primary_question":"What happens to housing, cities, and public infrastructure under population contraction?","summary":"Housing, cities and public infrastructure under population contraction.","topics":["population-decline","housing","cities","south-africa"],"geographies":["South Africa"],"keywords":["Population decline","Housing","Cities","South Africa","shrink","country","without","breaking","happens","housing","cities","public","infrastructure","population","contraction"],"related_questions":["What happens to house prices when population declines?","Can housing scarcity persist while population falls?","How should cities and infrastructure adjust when a country shrinks?"],"answer":{"conditional_answer":"In the central scenario, a 22.2 percent population decline by 2076 coincides with 3.5 percent more households. The same run can still produce a shortage of roughly 54,000 habitable homes after the city has lost 266,000 people.","evidence_status":"modelled","assumption_ids":["GSX:POP-009:A01","GSX:POP-009:A02"],"result_ids":["GSX:POP-009:R01"],"main_limitation":"This is a hypothetical region, not a forecast for a named Gauteng municipality. Housing demand follows households, so a falling headcount is not itself a falling housing demand. The shortage also depends on the stock deteriorating and on repairs being misallocated.","sensitivity":"high"},"entities":["South Africa","population-decline","housing","cities","south-africa"],"methods":[{"id":"GSX:POP-009:M01","name":"Shrinking city-region accounts","model_class":"scenario model","purpose":"The model separates population, households, school-age children, and network length across four zones. Housing demand follows households. School demand follows children. Infrastructure cost follows the network, not only the litres sold.","implementation_file":"research/source/how_to_shrink_a_country_model.py"}],"parameters":[{"id":"P01","name":"Hypothetical Gauteng-scale city-region","symbol":"see the manuscript","description":"The model follows a hypothetical region from 2026 to 2076. It starts with 1.2 million people, about 420,000 households, and 430,000 habitable homes. The zones are stylised. They are not labelled real Gauteng neighbourhoods.","value":"1.2","unit":"million people in 2026","price_year":"2026","scenario_values":{"central":"1.2"},"source_ids":["GSX:POP-009:PDF"]}],"equations":["The manuscript states the accounting identities in prose. No separate machine equation list is published."],"scenarios":[{"id":"S01","name":"Central scenario, deteriorating stock and misallocated repairs","role":"baseline","description":"By 2076 the region has 934,000 people and 434,000 households. 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It is not a separately catalogued manuscript issue date.","authors":[{"name":"Pakang Senosha","affiliation":"University of Pretoria","slug":"pakang-senosha"}],"extraction_status":"full_text_claim_led","manuscript":{"study_id":"GSX:POP-009","source_path":"research/source/how-to-shrink-a-country/how-to-shrink-a-country.md","source_sha256":"e2327ae42da099f24a5412bd5272c0f26ed6c294a6a6e505f679d28685c1f199","source_bytes":37741,"character_count":37741,"word_count":5397,"headings":[{"level":1,"title":"How to Shrink a Country Without Breaking It","slug":"how-to-shrink-a-country-without-breaking-it","line":1},{"level":2,"title":"Housing, schools and infrastructure after the age of population growth","slug":"housing-schools-and-infrastructure-after-the-age-of-population-growth","line":2},{"level":1,"title":"Part I: The finding","slug":"part-i-the-finding","line":4},{"level":1,"title":"Part II: Shrinkage is a spatial problem","slug":"part-ii-shrinkage-is-a-spatial-problem","line":22},{"level":1,"title":"Part III: The household is the hidden denominator","slug":"part-iii-the-household-is-the-hidden-denominator","line":41},{"level":1,"title":"Part IV: The population-household crossover","slug":"part-iv-the-population-household-crossover","line":55},{"level":1,"title":"Part V: The contraction map","slug":"part-v-the-contraction-map","line":69},{"level":1,"title":"Part VI: Housing shortages after the peak","slug":"part-vi-housing-shortages-after-the-peak","line":87},{"level":1,"title":"Part VII: House prices split before they fall","slug":"part-vii-house-prices-split-before-they-fall","line":103},{"level":1,"title":"Part VIII: The fixed-cost trap","slug":"part-viii-the-fixed-cost-trap","line":122},{"level":1,"title":"Part IX: The regional failure sequence","slug":"part-ix-the-regional-failure-sequence","line":134},{"level":1,"title":"Part X: When a suburb becomes uneconomic","slug":"part-x-when-a-suburb-becomes-uneconomic","line":153},{"level":1,"title":"Part XI: Half-empty schools","slug":"part-xi-half-empty-schools","line":171},{"level":1,"title":"Part XII: Universities after the youth peak","slug":"part-xii-universities-after-the-youth-peak","line":187},{"level":1,"title":"Part XIII: Spending per remaining child","slug":"part-xiii-spending-per-remaining-child","line":205},{"level":1,"title":"Part XIV: Managed shrinkage versus delayed adjustment","slug":"part-xiv-managed-shrinkage-versus-delayed-adjustment","line":217},{"level":1,"title":"Part XV: Deliberate abandonment without abandoning people","slug":"part-xv-deliberate-abandonment-without-abandoning-people","line":231},{"level":1,"title":"Part XVI: The optimal shrinking-city strategy","slug":"part-xvi-the-optimal-shrinking-city-strategy","line":248},{"level":1,"title":"Part XVII: Best, average and worst cases","slug":"part-xvii-best-average-and-worst-cases","line":266},{"level":1,"title":"Part XVIII: The policy answer","slug":"part-xviii-the-policy-answer","line":282},{"level":2,"title":"1. Measure households, not only people","slug":"1-measure-households-not-only-people","line":288},{"level":2,"title":"2. Price the full network","slug":"2-price-the-full-network","line":292},{"level":2,"title":"3. Protect viable nodes","slug":"3-protect-viable-nodes","line":296},{"level":2,"title":"4. Fund transition","slug":"4-fund-transition","line":300},{"level":2,"title":"5. Guarantee access","slug":"5-guarantee-access","line":304},{"level":2,"title":"6. Share the demographic dividend","slug":"6-share-the-demographic-dividend","line":308},{"level":2,"title":"7. 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