{"id":"GSX:POP-009:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"In the central scenario, a 22.2 percent population decline by 2076 coincides with 3.5 percent more households. The same run can still produce a shortage of roughly 54,000 habitable homes after the city has lost 266,000 people.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:POP-009:A01","GSX:POP-009:A02"],"result":"GSX:POP-009:R01","results":["GSX:POP-009:R01"],"sensitivity":"high","main_limitation":"This is a hypothetical region, not a forecast for a named Gauteng municipality. Housing demand follows households, so a falling headcount is not itself a falling housing demand. The shortage also depends on the stock deteriorating and on repairs being misallocated.","source_study":"GSX:POP-009","version":"1.0","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/how-to-shrink-a-country-without-breaking-it/claims/C01","supported_by":["GSX:POP-009:PDF"],"contradicted_by":[],"qualifies":[],"contradicts":[]}