{"schema_version":"GreyResearchObject 1.2","id":"GSX:POP-008","slug":"inheritance-after-retirement","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","series_number":"02","paper_number":"08","title":"Inheritance After Retirement","version":"1.0","status":"published","primary_question":"What is the economic difference when inheritance arrives at 40, 55, 70, or 85?","summary":"The economic value of inheritance arriving at 40, 55, 70 or 85.","topics":["inheritance","retirement","lifetime-wealth","south-africa"],"geographies":["South Africa"],"keywords":["Inheritance","Retirement","Lifetime wealth","South Africa","inheritance","retirement","economic","difference","arrives","40","55","70","85"],"related_questions":["How does the age at which inheritance arrives change its economic value?","What happens to inheritance when retirement and longer lives move bequests later?"],"answer":{"conditional_answer":"If R1 million remains invested until age 100 at 4 percent above inflation, a living transfer at 35 becomes R12.80 million, an inheritance at 40 becomes R10.52 million, at 55 R5.84 million, at 70 R3.24 million, and at 85 R1.80 million, in constant 2026 rand.","evidence_status":"modelled","assumption_ids":["GSX:POP-008:A01","GSX:POP-008:A02"],"result_ids":["GSX:POP-008:R01","GSX:POP-008:R02"],"main_limitation":"These values exclude tax, fees, and consumption so that timing stays visible. The manuscript does not claim that 70 is today's average age of inheritance in South Africa. If the heir spends the money, or if returns differ by owner, the age-100 values do not apply.","sensitivity":"high"},"entities":["South Africa","inheritance","retirement","lifetime-wealth","south-africa"],"methods":[{"id":"GSX:POP-008:M01","name":"Inheritance timing map","model_class":"scenario model","purpose":"One transfer is compounded to age 100 under alternative arrival ages and real returns. The map isolates timing. It does not estimate the current South African age at which people inherit.","implementation_file":"research/source/inheritance_after_retirement_model.py"}],"parameters":[{"id":"P01","name":"Same R1 million, different arrival age","symbol":"see the manuscript","description":"The model compares one R1 million transfer received at 40, 55, 70, or 85, plus a living transfer at 35. If it stays invested until age 100, only the arrival age and the real return change. The illustrated values exclude tax, fees, and consumption.","value":"1000000","unit":"constant 2026 rand transferred","price_year":"2026","scenario_values":{"central":"1000000"},"source_ids":["GSX:POP-008:PDF"]}],"equations":["The manuscript states the accounting identities in prose. No separate machine equation list is published."],"scenarios":[{"id":"S01","name":"Average 4 percent real return, no tax, fees, or consumption","role":"baseline","description":"At 4 percent real, R1 million kept invested until age 100 becomes R12.80 million if received at 35, R10.52 million at 40, R5.84 million at 55, R3.24 million at 70, and R1.80 million at 85.","assumption_overrides":{"note":"The central scenario uses the registered assumptions."},"probability_status":"illustrative","probability":"not assigned","rationale":"The manuscript labels this as a scenario."}],"unresolved_questions":["What is the economic difference when inheritance arrives at 40, 55, 70, or 85?"],"research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","peer_review_status":"none","external_review_status":"none","ai_assistance":{"disclosure":"GreyScienx manuscripts are prepared with substantial AI assistance in research, drafting, and computation. This record is not peer-reviewed. The published manuscript does not itemise AI participation by activity.","itemised":false},"date_modified":"2026-09-28","date_note":"Date of this machine record. It is not a separately catalogued manuscript issue date.","authors":[{"name":"Pakang Senosha","affiliation":"University of Pretoria","slug":"pakang-senosha"}],"extraction_status":"full_text_claim_led","manuscript":{"study_id":"GSX:POP-008","source_path":"research/source/inheritance-after-retirement/inheritance-after-retirement.md","source_sha256":"83a9a3899ad2b7466d58b20005b4813eadcae30f2586f45c7fb3fa398b7cbd0d","source_bytes":33403,"character_count":33403,"word_count":5095,"headings":[{"level":1,"title":"Inheritance After Retirement","slug":"inheritance-after-retirement","line":1},{"level":2,"title":"When family capital arrives after the decisions it was supposed to finance","slug":"when-family-capital-arrives-after-the-decisions-it-was-supposed-to-finance","line":2},{"level":1,"title":"Part I: The finding","slug":"part-i-the-finding","line":4},{"level":1,"title":"Part II: Longer life delays the capital cascade","slug":"part-ii-longer-life-delays-the-capital-cascade","line":30},{"level":1,"title":"Part III: The timing map","slug":"part-iii-the-timing-map","line":46},{"level":1,"title":"Part IV: Capital changes purpose with age","slug":"part-iv-capital-changes-purpose-with-age","line":62},{"level":1,"title":"Part V: The first-home window","slug":"part-v-the-first-home-window","line":78},{"level":1,"title":"Part VI: The business-formation window","slug":"part-vi-the-business-formation-window","line":94},{"level":1,"title":"Part VII: Giving early is not automatically better","slug":"part-vii-giving-early-is-not-automatically-better","line":106},{"level":1,"title":"Part VIII: Living transfers versus bequests","slug":"part-viii-living-transfers-versus-bequests","line":126},{"level":1,"title":"Part IX: Eighty years of compounding","slug":"part-ix-eighty-years-of-compounding","line":142},{"level":1,"title":"Part X: The three-generation result","slug":"part-x-the-three-generation-result","line":158},{"level":1,"title":"Part XI: Why inequality widens before the bequest","slug":"part-xi-why-inequality-widens-before-the-bequest","line":176},{"level":1,"title":"Part XII: South Africa's current tax wedge","slug":"part-xii-south-africa-s-current-tax-wedge","line":190},{"level":1,"title":"Part XIII: What should inheritance tax try to do?","slug":"part-xiii-what-should-inheritance-tax-try-to-do","line":212},{"level":1,"title":"Part XIV: Is inheritance economically obsolete?","slug":"part-xiv-is-inheritance-economically-obsolete","line":228},{"level":1,"title":"Part XV: Best, average and worst cases","slug":"part-xv-best-average-and-worst-cases","line":243},{"level":1,"title":"Part XVI: The policy answer","slug":"part-xvi-the-policy-answer","line":257},{"level":2,"title":"1. Count lifetime receipts","slug":"1-count-lifetime-receipts","line":263},{"level":2,"title":"2. Create a public counterpart to the private gift","slug":"2-create-a-public-counterpart-to-the-private-gift","line":267},{"level":2,"title":"3. Make housing wealth divisible without removing the parent","slug":"3-make-housing-wealth-divisible-without-removing-the-parent","line":271},{"level":2,"title":"4. Protect the longevity reserve","slug":"4-protect-the-longevity-reserve","line":275},{"level":2,"title":"5. Improve transfer data","slug":"5-improve-transfer-data","line":279},{"level":2,"title":"6. Tax large dynasties without taxing ordinary rescue","slug":"6-tax-large-dynasties-without-taxing-ordinary-rescue","line":283},{"level":1,"title":"Part XVII: Model assumptions and reading guide","slug":"part-xvii-model-assumptions-and-reading-guide","line":289},{"level":2,"title":"Sources used","slug":"sources-used","line":307}]},"claims":[{"id":"GSX:POP-008:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"If R1 million remains invested until age 100 at 4 percent above inflation, a living transfer at 35 becomes R12.80 million, an inheritance at 40 becomes R10.52 million, at 55 R5.84 million, at 70 R3.24 million, and at 85 R1.80 million, in constant 2026 rand.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:POP-008:A01","GSX:POP-008:A02"],"result":"GSX:POP-008:R01","results":["GSX:POP-008:R01","GSX:POP-008:R02"],"sensitivity":"high","main_limitation":"These values exclude tax, fees, and consumption so that timing stays visible. The manuscript does not claim that 70 is today's average age of inheritance in South Africa. If the heir spends the money, or if returns differ by owner, the age-100 values do not apply.","source_study":"GSX:POP-008","version":"1.0","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/inheritance-after-retirement/claims/C01","supported_by":["GSX:POP-008:PDF"],"contradicted_by":[],"qualifies":[],"contradicts":[]},{"id":"GSX:POP-008:C02","local_id":"C02","claim":"Under equal returns, no tax, no consumption, and free borrowing, the same family wealth results wherever the capital sits. Timing still changes what a young adult can do, because a transfer at 35 or 40 can meet a deposit, debt, education, or career constraint that a transfer at 70 or 85 arrives too late to change.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:POP-008:A01","GSX:POP-008:A03"],"result":"GSX:POP-008:R01","results":["GSX:POP-008:R01"],"sensitivity":"moderate","main_limitation":"The second statement is the manuscript's qualification of the pure compounding result. It is not a measured rand gap for every family. Control, tax, and credit constraints are the reasons timing matters once the clean case is dropped.","source_study":"GSX:POP-008","version":"1.0","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/inheritance-after-retirement/claims/C02","supported_by":["GSX:POP-008:PDF"],"contradicted_by":[],"qualifies":[],"contradicts":[]}],"assumptions":[{"id":"GSX:POP-008:A01","local_id":"A01","name":"Same R1 million, different arrival age","statement":"The model compares one R1 million transfer received at 40, 55, 70, or 85, plus a living transfer at 35. If it stays invested until age 100, only the arrival age and the real return change. The illustrated values exclude tax, fees, and consumption.","value":"1000000","unit":"constant 2026 rand transferred","type":"model assumption","provenance":"Manuscript timing map","evidence_strength":"illustrative","sensitivity":"high","alternatives":["2 percent real return","6 percent real return","The heir consumes part of the transfer"],"href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/inheritance-after-retirement/assumptions/A01"},{"id":"GSX:POP-008:A02","local_id":"A02","name":"Average return and starting pay","statement":"The recipient starts work at 25 on R30,000 a month. Real pay grows by 1.2 percent a year. Capital earns 4 percent above inflation in the average case. Values are constant 2026 rand.","value":"4","unit":"percent real return per year","type":"model assumption","provenance":"Manuscript average case","evidence_strength":"model assumption","sensitivity":"high","alternatives":["2 percent real","6 percent real"],"href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/inheritance-after-retirement/assumptions/A02"},{"id":"GSX:POP-008:A03","local_id":"A03","name":"Clean compounding case","statement":"If parents and children earn the same return, pay no tax, never consume the asset, and can borrow freely, family wealth does not depend on which generation legally holds the capital.","value":"qualitative","unit":"not a scalar","type":"model assumption","provenance":"Manuscript qualification","evidence_strength":"model assumption","sensitivity":"high","alternatives":["Deposit constraints, expensive credit, tax, and consumption"],"href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/inheritance-after-retirement/assumptions/A03"}],"results":[{"id":"GSX:POP-008:R01","local_id":"R01","statement":"At 4 percent real, R1 million kept invested until age 100 becomes R12.80 million if received at 35, R10.52 million at 40, R5.84 million at 55, R3.24 million at 70, and R1.80 million at 85.","value":"10.52","unit":"million constant 2026 rand at age 100, inheritance at 40","scenario":"Average 4 percent real return, no tax, fees, or consumption","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/inheritance-after-retirement/results/R01"},{"id":"GSX:POP-008:R02","local_id":"R02","statement":"The same inheritance received at 40 is worth R3.28 million by age 100 at 2 percent real and R32.99 million at 6 percent real. Received at 85, those three returns narrow to R1.35 million, R1.80 million, and R2.40 million.","value":"32.99","unit":"million constant 2026 rand at age 100, 6 percent, received at 40","scenario":"Return sensitivity at ages 40 and 85","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/inheritance-after-retirement/results/R02"}],"models":[{"id":"GSX:POP-008:M01","local_id":"M01","name":"Inheritance timing map","statement":"One transfer is compounded to age 100 under alternative arrival ages and real returns. The map isolates timing. It does not estimate the current South African age at which people inherit.","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/inheritance-after-retirement/models/M01"}],"sources":[{"id":"GSX:POP-008:PDF","type":"manuscript","title":"Inheritance After Retirement","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/inheritance-after-retirement.pdf","author_or_publisher":"GreyScienx","date":"2026-09-27","locator":"20 pages; 1.03 MB","note":"Published manuscript used for this semantic-twin extraction. External references remain represented in the manuscript unless separately registered.","supports":["GSX:POP-008:C01"],"contradicts":[],"pages":20,"size":"1.03 MB","media_type":"application/pdf"},{"id":"GSX:POP-008:SRC01","type":"web_reference","title":"OECD's study of household wealth and inheritances","href":"https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/inheritance-taxation-in-oecd-countries_e2879a7d-en/full-report/component-4.html","author_or_publisher":"oecd.org","date":"see cited resource","locator":"URL cited in the manuscript","note":"The manuscript cites this resource. Inclusion does not independently validate it or assign it to a specific claim.","supports":["claim-level support not assigned"],"contradicts":[]},{"id":"GSX:POP-008:SRC02","type":"web_reference","title":"2025 General Household Survey","href":"https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0318/P03182025.pdf","author_or_publisher":"statssa.gov.za","date":"see cited resource","locator":"URL cited in the manuscript","note":"The manuscript cites this resource. Inclusion does not independently validate it or assign it to a specific claim.","supports":["claim-level support not assigned"],"contradicts":[]},{"id":"GSX:POP-008:SRC03","type":"web_reference","title":"World Inequality Database study","href":"https://wid.world/news-article/how-unequal-is-the-wealth-distribution-in-south-africa/","author_or_publisher":"wid.world","date":"see cited resource","locator":"URL cited in the manuscript","note":"The manuscript cites this resource. Inclusion does not independently validate it or assign it to a specific claim.","supports":["claim-level support not assigned"],"contradicts":[]},{"id":"GSX:POP-008:SRC04","type":"web_reference","title":"South African Reserve Bank's June 2025 Quarterly Bulletin","href":"https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/quarterly-bulletins/quarterly-bulletin-publications/2025/june/01Full%20Quarterly%20Bulletin.pdf","author_or_publisher":"resbank.co.za","date":"see cited resource","locator":"URL cited in the manuscript","note":"The manuscript cites this resource. Inclusion does not independently validate it or assign it to a specific claim.","supports":["claim-level support not assigned"],"contradicts":[]},{"id":"GSX:POP-008:SRC05","type":"web_reference","title":"SARS states","href":"https://www.sars.gov.za/types-of-tax/estate-duty/","author_or_publisher":"sars.gov.za","date":"see cited resource","locator":"URL cited in the manuscript","note":"The manuscript cites this resource. Inclusion does not independently validate it or assign it to a specific claim.","supports":["claim-level support not assigned"],"contradicts":[]},{"id":"GSX:POP-008:SRC06","type":"web_reference","title":"SARS increased the annual donations-tax exemption for a natural person to R150,000","href":"https://www.sars.gov.za/about/sars-tax-and-customs-system/budget/budget-2026-frequently-asked-questions/","author_or_publisher":"sars.gov.za","date":"see cited resource","locator":"URL cited in the manuscript","note":"The manuscript cites this resource. 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Inclusion does not independently validate it or assign it to a specific claim.","supports":["claim-level support not assigned"],"contradicts":[]},{"id":"GSX:POP-008:SRC08","type":"web_reference","title":"OECD's review of inheritance-tax arguments","href":"https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/inheritance-taxation-in-oecd-countries_e2879a7d-en/full-report/component-5.html","author_or_publisher":"oecd.org","date":"see cited resource","locator":"URL cited in the manuscript","note":"The manuscript cites this resource. Inclusion does not independently validate it or assign it to a specific claim.","supports":["claim-level support not assigned"],"contradicts":[]},{"id":"GSX:POP-008:SRC09","type":"web_reference","title":"OECD, Inheritance Taxation in OECD Countries","href":"https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/inheritance-taxation-in-oecd-countries_e2879a7d-en/","author_or_publisher":"oecd.org","date":"see cited resource","locator":"URL cited in the manuscript","note":"The manuscript cites this resource. Inclusion does not independently validate it or assign it to a specific claim.","supports":["claim-level support not assigned"],"contradicts":[]}],"datasets":[{"id":"D01","title":"Inheritance After Retirement","description":"The published manuscript is the data statement for this form.","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/inheritance-after-retirement","geographic_coverage":"South Africa","licence":"The reading copy is published on greyscienx.com. No separate open licence is stated."}],"figures":[{"id":"F01","title":"Inheritance timing","caption":"Figure 1. Age 35 is a living-transfer reference. Ages 40, 55, 70 and 85 are inheritance cases. Values exclude tax, fees and consumption so that timing and compounding remain visible.","alt_text":"Inheritance timing","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/inheritance-after-retirement/assets/inheritance-timing.png","data_file":"research/source/inheritance-after-retirement/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-008:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-008:PDF"]},{"id":"F02","title":"Purpose of inherited capital","caption":"Figure 2. The same transfer moves from formation capital toward retirement and onward transmission as the recipient ages. The shares are declared scenario assumptions.","alt_text":"Purpose of inherited capital","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/inheritance-after-retirement/assets/capital-purpose.png","data_file":"research/source/inheritance-after-retirement/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-008:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-008:PDF"]},{"id":"F03","title":"Housing and business windows","caption":"Figure 3. The home result is a savings-path example, not a Gauteng house-price forecast. The business panel counts years remaining to conventional retirement at 65; a long-life career would extend that runway.","alt_text":"Housing and business windows","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/inheritance-after-retirement/assets/housing-business-windows.png","data_file":"research/source/inheritance-after-retirement/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-008:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-008:PDF"]},{"id":"F04","title":"Safe transfer frontier","caption":"Figure 4. The safety rule is illustrative and excludes the parent's home, taxes and uncertain market returns. A value of zero means the modelled reserve absorbs the entire portfolio.","alt_text":"Safe transfer frontier","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/inheritance-after-retirement/assets/safe-transfer-frontier.png","data_file":"research/source/inheritance-after-retirement/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-008:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-008:PDF"]},{"id":"F05","title":"Eighty years of compounding","caption":"Figure 5. The vertical axis is logarithmic. The calculation assumes no tax, fees, withdrawals, losses or division among heirs. It is a sensitivity test, not an achievable promise.","alt_text":"Eighty years of compounding","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/inheritance-after-retirement/assets/eighty-year-compounding.png","data_file":"research/source/inheritance-after-retirement/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-008:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-008:PDF"]},{"id":"F06","title":"Three-generation wealth paths","caption":"Figure 6. The model includes only simplified donations tax or estate duty. It excludes capital gains tax, fees, spouse deductions, trusts, consumption, care and division among heirs.","alt_text":"Three-generation wealth paths","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/inheritance-after-retirement/assets/dynasty-paths.png","data_file":"research/source/inheritance-after-retirement/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-008:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-008:PDF"]}],"tables":[{"id":"T00","title":"Tables in the manuscript","description":"Tables remain in the manuscript and are not exported as separate data files.","file":"research/source/inheritance-after-retirement/inheritance-after-retirement.md","result_ids":["GSX:POP-008:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-008:PDF"]}],"reproducibility":{"code_available":true,"data_available":true,"environment_available":false,"random_seed":"the published statement does not rely on a recorded random seed","software":["Python 3"],"repository_url":null},"editorial":{"required_checks":{"stable_ids":true,"no_naked_claims":true,"assumptions_linked":true,"results_linked":true,"sources_linked":true,"units_complete":true,"price_years_complete":true,"scenario_labels_complete":true,"figure_data_available":true,"alt_text_complete":true,"text_extraction_verified":true,"pdf_visual_qa_complete":true,"links_checked":true,"reproducibility_checked":true,"ai_disclosure_complete":true,"human_final_review":true},"blocking_issues":[],"warnings":["Reproduction verifies the registered JSON baseline; it is not independent empirical validation of the model.","Publisher-reviewed candidate links are accepted as contextual manuscript references, not as independent empirical validation of modelled outputs."],"change_log":[{"version":"1.0","date":"2026-09-29","author":"GreyScienx","summary":"Filled the semantic-twin form from the published manuscript. 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