{"schema_version":"GreyResearchObject 1.2","id":"GSX:IND-005","slug":"the-capital-goods-economy","series_slug":"strategic-industrialisation","series_title":"Strategic Industrialisation","series_number":"04","paper_number":"05","title":"The Capital-Goods Economy","version":"1.0","status":"published","primary_question":"What equipment, capabilities, and supplier networks sit behind durable industrialisation?","summary":"The equipment, capabilities and supplier networks behind durable industrialisation.","topics":["industrialisation","south-africa"],"geographies":["South Africa"],"keywords":["Industrialisation","South Africa","capital","goods","economy","equipment","capabilities","supplier","networks","sit","behind","durable","industrialisation"],"related_questions":["Why do capital goods determine whether industrialisation lasts?","What supplier base does a capital-goods economy require?"],"answer":{"conditional_answer":"In the central catch-up case, a weighted 6.7 percent equipment share produces about US$262 billion of South African equipment sales over twenty-five years and about US$201 billion of value retained in South Africa.","evidence_status":"modelled","assumption_ids":["GSX:IND-005:A01","GSX:IND-005:A02","GSX:IND-005:A03"],"result_ids":["GSX:IND-005:R01","GSX:IND-005:R02"],"main_limitation":"The paths are scenarios, not forecasts, and the retained value cannot be added mechanically to a GDP forecast. Some of this activity already exists. The result is a scale test of a selected machinery and service position, not a claim that South Africa should make every final product.","sensitivity":"high"},"entities":["South Africa","industrialisation","south-africa"],"methods":[{"id":"GSX:IND-005:M01","name":"African capital-goods scale test","model_class":"scale scenario","purpose":"The model follows three African manufacturing paths from 2026 to 2050, applies equipment-purchase ratios and South African market shares, then adds lifecycle revenue and removes imported or non-South-African inputs.","implementation_file":"research/source/capital-goods-economy/model.py"}],"parameters":[{"id":"P01","name":"Central manufacturing path","symbol":"see the manuscript","description":"In the central catch-up case, African manufacturing value added grows from a rounded US$300 billion in 2025 to about US$1.14 trillion in 2050. Factory-equipment purchases average 24 percent of manufacturing value added.","value":"24","unit":"percent of manufacturing value added spent on factory equipment","price_year":"2024","scenario_values":{"central":"24"},"source_ids":["GSX:IND-005:PDF"]}],"equations":["The manuscript states the accounting identities in prose. No separate machine equation list is published."],"scenarios":[{"id":"S01","name":"Central catch-up case, 2026-2050","role":"baseline","description":"The central case produces a cumulative capital-goods market of US$3.89 trillion and about US$262 billion of South African equipment sales over twenty-five years, in constant 2024 dollars.","assumption_overrides":{"note":"The central scenario uses the registered assumptions."},"probability_status":"illustrative","probability":"not assigned","rationale":"The manuscript labels this as a scenario."}],"unresolved_questions":["What equipment, capabilities, and supplier networks sit behind durable industrialisation?"],"research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","peer_review_status":"none","external_review_status":"none","ai_assistance":{"disclosure":"GreyScienx manuscripts are prepared with substantial AI assistance in research, drafting, and computation. This record is not peer-reviewed. The published manuscript does not itemise AI participation by activity.","itemised":false},"date_modified":"2026-09-28","date_note":"Date of this machine record. It is not a separately catalogued manuscript issue date.","authors":[{"name":"Pakang Senosha","affiliation":"University of Pretoria","slug":"pakang-senosha"}],"extraction_status":"full_text_claim_led","manuscript":{"study_id":"GSX:IND-005","source_path":"research/source/capital-goods-economy/report.md","source_sha256":"663767038d2f4f2fce7dc49da542d9da973c8fd15ca2b99bdb0f543894c75c03","source_bytes":46608,"character_count":46560,"word_count":6279,"headings":[{"level":1,"title":"The Capital-Goods Economy","slug":"the-capital-goods-economy","line":1},{"level":2,"title":"Should South Africa specialise in the machinery that African factories will need?","slug":"should-south-africa-specialise-in-the-machinery-that-african-factories-will-need","line":3},{"level":1,"title":"PART I: The answer","slug":"part-i-the-answer","line":5},{"level":2,"title":"Equip African industrialisation rather than trying to make everything","slug":"equip-african-industrialisation-rather-than-trying-to-make-everything","line":7},{"level":2,"title":"Nine findings","slug":"nine-findings","line":31},{"level":1,"title":"PART II: The industrial premise","slug":"part-ii-the-industrial-premise","line":51},{"level":2,"title":"Africa has factories, but not yet a continental factory system","slug":"africa-has-factories-but-not-yet-a-continental-factory-system","line":53},{"level":2,"title":"Three manufacturing paths","slug":"three-manufacturing-paths","line":63},{"level":2,"title":"AfCFTA changes scale, not gravity","slug":"afcfta-changes-scale-not-gravity","line":81},{"level":1,"title":"PART III: The market inside the factory","slug":"part-iii-the-market-inside-the-factory","line":89},{"level":2,"title":"What African industrialisation has to buy","slug":"what-african-industrialisation-has-to-buy","line":91},{"level":3,"title":"Mining and materials handling","slug":"mining-and-materials-handling","line":99},{"level":3,"title":"Food and agricultural processing","slug":"food-and-agricultural-processing","line":107},{"level":3,"title":"Electrical machinery and factory power","slug":"electrical-machinery-and-factory-power","line":113},{"level":3,"title":"Packaging and light industrial equipment","slug":"packaging-and-light-industrial-equipment","line":119},{"level":3,"title":"Process and chemical equipment","slug":"process-and-chemical-equipment","line":125},{"level":3,"title":"Controls, automation and robotics","slug":"controls-automation-and-robotics","line":131},{"level":3,"title":"Medical, laboratory and general equipment","slug":"medical-laboratory-and-general-equipment","line":137},{"level":1,"title":"PART IV: The South African position","slug":"part-iv-the-south-african-position","line":143},{"level":2,"title":"A real base facing industrial attrition","slug":"a-real-base-facing-industrial-attrition","line":145},{"level":2,"title":"Africa is already the natural market","slug":"africa-is-already-the-natural-market","line":169},{"level":1,"title":"PART V: The capture arithmetic","slug":"part-v-the-capture-arithmetic","line":173},{"level":2,"title":"Six to seven per cent is enough to matter","slug":"six-to-seven-per-cent-is-enough-to-matter","line":175},{"level":2,"title":"The funnel","slug":"the-funnel","line":200},{"level":1,"title":"PART VI: The installed-base economy","slug":"part-vi-the-installed-base-economy","line":212},{"level":2,"title":"A machine sold is a twenty-year customer relationship—or a missed opportunity","slug":"a-machine-sold-is-a-twenty-year-customer-relationship-or-a-missed-opportunity","line":214},{"level":2,"title":"Own the parts ecosystem","slug":"own-the-parts-ecosystem","line":240},{"level":1,"title":"PART VII: Three South African outcomes","slug":"part-vii-three-south-african-outcomes","line":248},{"level":2,"title":"Distributor, machinery supplier or lifecycle platform","slug":"distributor-machinery-supplier-or-lifecycle-platform","line":250},{"level":2,"title":"Jobs and scale","slug":"jobs-and-scale","line":277},{"level":1,"title":"PART VIII: Capital goods versus basic manufacturing","slug":"part-viii-capital-goods-versus-basic-manufacturing","line":289},{"level":2,"title":"This is a portfolio choice, not a false binary","slug":"this-is-a-portfolio-choice-not-a-false-binary","line":291},{"level":2,"title":"What should not be made locally?","slug":"what-should-not-be-made-locally","line":305},{"level":1,"title":"PART IX: Portfolio choice","slug":"part-ix-portfolio-choice","line":319},{"level":2,"title":"Compete where knowledge travels with the machine","slug":"compete-where-knowledge-travels-with-the-machine","line":321},{"level":1,"title":"PART X: Finance the buyer","slug":"part-x-finance-the-buyer","line":341},{"level":2,"title":"The machine and the credit package are one product","slug":"the-machine-and-the-credit-package-are-one-product","line":343},{"level":1,"title":"PART XI: Build the ecosystem","slug":"part-xi-build-the-ecosystem","line":365},{"level":2,"title":"A capital-goods industry is a network of small capabilities","slug":"a-capital-goods-industry-is-a-network-of-small-capabilities","line":367},{"level":2,"title":"The home market is the training ground","slug":"the-home-market-is-the-training-ground","line":383},{"level":1,"title":"PART XII: Localise across Africa","slug":"part-xii-localise-across-africa","line":389},{"level":2,"title":"African production is part of the strategy","slug":"african-production-is-part-of-the-strategy","line":391},{"level":1,"title":"PART XIII: Competition and failure tests","slug":"part-xiii-competition-and-failure-tests","line":407},{"level":2,"title":"South Africa is not the default supplier","slug":"south-africa-is-not-the-default-supplier","line":409},{"level":1,"title":"PART XIV: A 2050 roadmap","slug":"part-xiv-a-2050-roadmap","line":435},{"level":2,"title":"Move from surviving niches to performance contracts","slug":"move-from-surviving-niches-to-performance-contracts","line":437},{"level":3,"title":"2026–2030: stabilise the base","slug":"2026-2030-stabilise-the-base","line":443},{"level":3,"title":"2031–2036: finance the buyer","slug":"2031-2036-finance-the-buyer","line":447},{"level":3,"title":"2037–2043: own the installed base","slug":"2037-2043-own-the-installed-base","line":451},{"level":1,"title":"PART XV: Verdict","slug":"part-xv-verdict","line":455},{"level":2,"title":"Become the country that keeps African factories running","slug":"become-the-country-that-keeps-african-factories-running","line":457},{"level":1,"title":"MODEL NOTES","slug":"model-notes","line":479},{"level":2,"title":"Scope and assumptions","slug":"scope-and-assumptions","line":481},{"level":2,"title":"What the model excludes","slug":"what-the-model-excludes","line":501},{"level":2,"title":"Primary sources","slug":"primary-sources","line":509},{"level":2,"title":"Reproducibility","slug":"reproducibility","line":524}]},"claims":[{"id":"GSX:IND-005:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"In the central catch-up case, a weighted 6.7 percent equipment share produces about US$262 billion of South African equipment sales over twenty-five years and about US$201 billion of value retained in South Africa.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:IND-005:A01","GSX:IND-005:A02","GSX:IND-005:A03"],"result":"GSX:IND-005:R01","results":["GSX:IND-005:R01","GSX:IND-005:R02"],"sensitivity":"high","main_limitation":"The paths are scenarios, not forecasts, and the retained value cannot be added mechanically to a GDP forecast. 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No separate open licence is stated."}],"figures":[{"id":"F01","title":"African manufacturing paths","caption":"Figure 1. The paths are transparent scenarios, not forecasts. The starting value is a rounded interpretation of Africa's current manufacturing scale.","alt_text":"African manufacturing paths","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/capital-goods-economy/assets/manufacturing-paths.png","data_file":"research/source/capital-goods-economy/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:IND-005:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:IND-005:PDF"]},{"id":"F02","title":"Equipment demand","caption":"Figure 2. The capital-goods ratios are constructed assumptions. 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The largest captured categories combine an existing capability base with large African demand. All shares are challengeable assumptions.","alt_text":"South African equipment sales","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/capital-goods-economy/assets/category-capture.png","data_file":"research/source/capital-goods-economy/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:IND-005:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:IND-005:PDF"]},{"id":"F05","title":"Capture funnel","caption":"Figure 5. Lifecycle revenue is additional to equipment sales but derives from the modelled installed base. Domestic value added is lower than gross revenue.","alt_text":"Capture funnel","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/capital-goods-economy/assets/capture-funnel.png","data_file":"research/source/capital-goods-economy/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:IND-005:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:IND-005:PDF"]},{"id":"F06","title":"Lifecycle revenue","caption":"Figure 6. Service revenue rises behind equipment sales because each year's installations join the surviving installed base.","alt_text":"Lifecycle revenue","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/capital-goods-economy/assets/lifecycle-stack.png","data_file":"research/source/capital-goods-economy/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:IND-005:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:IND-005:PDF"]},{"id":"F07","title":"Three business models","caption":"Figure 7. The platform case combines higher share with higher domestic value retention. It is an ambition case, not the paper's central expectation.","alt_text":"Three business models","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/capital-goods-economy/assets/business-models.png","data_file":"research/source/capital-goods-economy/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:IND-005:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:IND-005:PDF"]},{"id":"F08","title":"Market share and employment","caption":"Figure 8. 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