{"id":"GSX:AFR-003:A01","local_id":"A01","name":"Urban anchor","statement":"The demographic anchor is a rise from roughly 700 million urban residents to 1.4 billion by 2050. The manuscript attributes the trajectory to UN-Habitat and the United Nations, not to a GreyScienx population forecast.","value":"700","unit":"million additional urban residents","type":"model assumption","provenance":"Manuscript Part I","evidence_strength":"external demographic trajectory used as a scenario anchor","sensitivity":"moderate","alternatives":["A slower urbanisation path"],"href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/african-convergence/the-factory-for-african-urbanisation/assumptions/A01"}