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The age-60 figure holds when the gap is preserved on the manuscript's common post-25 path.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/household-economics/the-first-three-years-advantage/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:HH-002:A01","type":"assumption","label":"The central case is a 22-year-old worker in Johannesburg, expressed in constant 2026 rand.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-first-three-years-advantage"},{"id":"GSX:HH-002:A02","type":"assumption","label":"The central worker earns R420,000 a year before tax. The manuscript also reports a lower case of R240,000 and a higher case of R720,000. These are illustrative starting salaries, not national percentiles.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-first-three-years-advantage"},{"id":"GSX:HH-002:A03","type":"assumption","label":"Independent housing in the Johannesburg scenario costs R9,600 a month in rent and R7,200 a month in other housing basics. The manuscript treats these as transparent city scenarios, not estimated city means.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-first-three-years-advantage"},{"id":"GSX:HH-002:A04","type":"assumption","label":"While living in the family home, the worker contributes 12% of take-home pay, bounded between R2,500 and R6,000 a month, plus R1,200 of personal food and services. The manuscript counts this transfer as a private cost.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-first-three-years-advantage"},{"id":"GSX:HH-002:A05","type":"assumption","label":"The car is a R230,000 used vehicle with a 10% deposit and 60-month finance at 11.5%, plus insurance, parking, fuel, maintenance, and depreciation as specified in the manuscript.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-first-three-years-advantage"},{"id":"GSX:HH-002:A06","type":"assumption","label":"Delaying the car uses a public-transport and ride-hailing mix. In the central case the worker travels about 640 kilometres a month.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-first-three-years-advantage"},{"id":"GSX:HH-002:A07","type":"assumption","label":"At age 25 every strategy has moved out and acquired the modelled car. From then on the paths share the same real salary growth, a 10% retirement saving rate, and a 5% real investment return.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-first-three-years-advantage"},{"id":"GSX:HH-002:R01","type":"result","label":"Moving out and buying the car immediately leaves a modelled funding shortfall of R49,000 at age 25 in the central case.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-first-three-years-advantage"},{"id":"GSX:HH-002:R02","type":"result","label":"Delaying the move and the car for three years leaves R553,000 of modelled net capital at age 25 in the central case.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-first-three-years-advantage"},{"id":"GSX:HH-002:R03","type":"result","label":"The central three-year combined delay creates R602,000 more modelled net capital at age 25 than immediate independence.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-first-three-years-advantage"},{"id":"GSX:HH-002:R04","type":"result","label":"If that age-25 gap is preserved on the common post-25 path, the manuscript reports R3.32 million more modelled wealth at age 60.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-first-three-years-advantage"},{"id":"GSX:HH-002:C02","type":"claim","label":"In the central case, staying at home for three years while buying the car immediately accounts for R486,000 of extra modelled capital at age 25, while moving out immediately and delaying the car accounts for R128,000. The housing decision is the larger of the two.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/household-economics/the-first-three-years-advantage/claims/C02"},{"id":"GSX:HH-002:R05","type":"result","label":"Staying at home for three years while buying the car immediately creates R486,000 more modelled capital by age 25. 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