{"schema_version":"GreyResearchObject 1.2","id":"GSX:POP-007","slug":"the-hundred-year-life","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","series_number":"02","paper_number":"07","title":"The Hundred-Year Life","version":"1.0","status":"published","primary_question":"How would education, work, housing, and family life be redesigned for lives of 100 to 120 years?","summary":"Education, work, housing and family life redesigned for 100–120 year lives.","topics":["population-decline","housing","retirement","south-africa"],"geographies":["South Africa"],"keywords":["Population decline","Housing","Retirement","South Africa","hundred","year","life","education","work","housing","family","redesigned","100","120","years"],"related_questions":["What happens to housing when people live longer?","How do longer lives change work, education, and family timing?"],"answer":{"conditional_answer":"If a conventional life retires at 65 and the person lives to 120, retirement lasts 55 years and the modelled pension finances only 57 percent of the target income, even with uninterrupted employment.","evidence_status":"modelled","assumption_ids":["GSX:POP-007:A01","GSX:POP-007:A02","GSX:POP-007:A03"],"result_ids":["GSX:POP-007:R01"],"main_limitation":"South Africans do not currently live to 100 or 120 on average. The scenario explores extended healthy adulthood, not a forecast. If healthspan does not rise with lifespan, the financial results deteriorate and the care burden rises. A manual worker without stable work cannot simply be told to work to 85.","sensitivity":"high"},"entities":["South Africa","population-decline","housing","retirement","south-africa"],"methods":[{"id":"GSX:POP-007:M01","name":"Four life-course designs","model_class":"scenario model","purpose":"The model compares a conventional three-stage life, a long career, a multi-stage life with recurring education and a care break, and a portfolio life. It measures earnings and net fiscal contribution in constant 2026 rand under one extended healthy adulthood.","implementation_file":"research/source/hundred_year_life_model.py"}],"parameters":[{"id":"P01","name":"Extended healthy adulthood","symbol":"see the manuscript","description":"The scenario asks what changes if people routinely live to 100 or 120 with a substantial extension of healthy adult life. Current South African life expectancy is far shorter. This is not a projection that the average person will soon live to 120.","value":"120","unit":"years, scenario lifespan","price_year":"2026","scenario_values":{"central":"120"},"source_ids":["GSX:POP-007:PDF"]}],"equations":["The manuscript states the accounting identities in prose. No separate machine equation list is published."],"scenarios":[{"id":"S01","name":"Conventional three-stage life, life to 120","role":"baseline","description":"Even with uninterrupted employment, the conventional pension fund finances only 57 percent of the target income if retirement at 65 is followed by life to 120.","assumption_overrides":{"note":"The central scenario uses the registered assumptions."},"probability_status":"illustrative","probability":"not assigned","rationale":"The manuscript labels this as a scenario."}],"unresolved_questions":["How would education, work, housing, and family life be redesigned for lives of 100 to 120 years?"],"research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","peer_review_status":"none","external_review_status":"none","ai_assistance":{"disclosure":"GreyScienx manuscripts are prepared with substantial AI assistance in research, drafting, and computation. This record is not peer-reviewed. 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It is not a separately catalogued manuscript issue date.","authors":[{"name":"Pakang Senosha","affiliation":"University of Pretoria","slug":"pakang-senosha"}],"extraction_status":"full_text_claim_led","manuscript":{"study_id":"GSX:POP-007","source_path":"research/source/hundred-year-life/the-hundred-year-life.md","source_sha256":"0a3d7ef5ec9d16c0200b03676e6bd59210083eb8bb2b3ca0082f9d61f5e3b891","source_bytes":37762,"character_count":37762,"word_count":5624,"headings":[{"level":1,"title":"The Hundred-Year Life","slug":"the-hundred-year-life","line":1},{"level":2,"title":"How institutions change when adulthood lasts a century","slug":"how-institutions-change-when-adulthood-lasts-a-century","line":2},{"level":1,"title":"Part I: The finding","slug":"part-i-the-finding","line":4},{"level":1,"title":"Part II: A thought experiment, not a forecast","slug":"part-ii-a-thought-experiment-not-a-forecast","line":29},{"level":1,"title":"Part III: Four designs for one long adulthood","slug":"part-iii-four-designs-for-one-long-adulthood","line":45},{"level":1,"title":"Part IV: The lifetime time budget","slug":"part-iv-the-lifetime-time-budget","line":63},{"level":1,"title":"Part V: University at 40, 60 or 80","slug":"part-v-university-at-40-60-or-80","line":79},{"level":1,"title":"Part VI: A seventy-year career cannot be one job","slug":"part-vi-a-seventy-year-career-cannot-be-one-job","line":104},{"level":1,"title":"Part VII: Retirement does not disappear - the cliff does","slug":"part-vii-retirement-does-not-disappear-the-cliff-does","line":123},{"level":1,"title":"Part VIII: Fifty- and sixty-year mortgages","slug":"part-viii-fifty-and-sixty-year-mortgages","line":148},{"level":1,"title":"Part IX: Middle age becomes a moving target","slug":"part-ix-middle-age-becomes-a-moving-target","line":170},{"level":1,"title":"Part X: Marriage for eighty years","slug":"part-x-marriage-for-eighty-years","line":182},{"level":1,"title":"Part XI: Divorce at 60 is not late life","slug":"part-xi-divorce-at-60-is-not-late-life","line":203},{"level":1,"title":"Part XII: Five adult generations","slug":"part-xii-five-adult-generations","line":217},{"level":1,"title":"Part XIII: What must change first","slug":"part-xiii-what-must-change-first","line":233},{"level":2,"title":"1. Make benefits portable","slug":"1-make-benefits-portable","line":237},{"level":2,"title":"2. Finance recurring education","slug":"2-finance-recurring-education","line":241},{"level":2,"title":"3. Replace the retirement cliff","slug":"3-replace-the-retirement-cliff","line":245},{"level":2,"title":"4. Redesign work around capacity","slug":"4-redesign-work-around-capacity","line":249},{"level":2,"title":"5. Make housing adaptable","slug":"5-make-housing-adaptable","line":253},{"level":2,"title":"6. Protect individuals inside long relationships","slug":"6-protect-individuals-inside-long-relationships","line":257},{"level":2,"title":"7. Build long-term care before the family column lengthens","slug":"7-build-long-term-care-before-the-family-column-lengthens","line":261},{"level":1,"title":"Part XIV: The best, average and worst versions","slug":"part-xiv-the-best-average-and-worst-versions","line":265},{"level":1,"title":"Part XV: The policy answer","slug":"part-xv-the-policy-answer","line":281},{"level":1,"title":"Part XVI: Model assumptions and reading guide","slug":"part-xvi-model-assumptions-and-reading-guide","line":297},{"level":2,"title":"Sources used","slug":"sources-used","line":315}]},"claims":[{"id":"GSX:POP-007:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"If a conventional life retires at 65 and the person lives to 120, retirement lasts 55 years and the modelled pension finances only 57 percent of the target income, even with uninterrupted employment.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:POP-007:A01","GSX:POP-007:A02","GSX:POP-007:A03"],"result":"GSX:POP-007:R01","results":["GSX:POP-007:R01"],"sensitivity":"high","main_limitation":"South Africans do not currently live to 100 or 120 on average. 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No separate open licence is stated."}],"figures":[{"id":"F01","title":"Four life-course designs","caption":"Figure 1. Four complete adult lives on the same age scale. The conventional design concentrates education at the beginning and leisure at the end. The alternatives redistribute education, breaks and reduced work across adulthood.","alt_text":"Four life-course designs","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/hundred-year-life/assets/life-course-timelines.png","data_file":"research/source/hundred-year-life/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-007:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-007:PDF"]},{"id":"F02","title":"Adult time allocation","caption":"Figure 2. Adult years from age 20 to 120. Work-equivalent years count half-time work as half a year. Residual time includes full retirement and any unallocated non-work periods.","alt_text":"Adult time allocation","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/hundred-year-life/assets/adult-time-allocation.png","data_file":"research/source/hundred-year-life/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-007:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-007:PDF"]},{"id":"F03","title":"Returns to retraining","caption":"Figure 3. Present values in constant 2026 rand. All three cases assume work continues to 95 and that the qualification raises earnings. The positive result at 80 is small enough to disappear under modestly worse health, employment or wage outcomes.","alt_text":"Returns to retraining","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/hundred-year-life/assets/retraining-returns.png","data_file":"research/source/hundred-year-life/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-007:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-007:PDF"]},{"id":"F04","title":"Pension adequacy map","caption":"Figure 4. Funded ratio for a 70 percent replacement target. One hundred percent marks full funding under the assumptions. Very high values at retirement 95 are a mechanical result of long saving and a short retirement, not a policy target.","alt_text":"Pension adequacy map","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/hundred-year-life/assets/pension-adequacy-map.png","data_file":"research/source/hundred-year-life/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-007:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-007:PDF"]},{"id":"F05","title":"Mortgage trade-offs","caption":"Figure 5. Extending the term improves monthly affordability but greatly increases total real interest. The sixty-year borrower reaches today's retirement age with a substantial balance.","alt_text":"Mortgage trade-offs","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/hundred-year-life/assets/mortgage-tradeoffs.png","data_file":"research/source/hundred-year-life/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-007:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-007:PDF"]},{"id":"F06","title":"Care and adult generations","caption":"Figure 6. Number of adult generations that can overlap under fixed generation gaps. 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