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Mineral and petroleum royalties were R10.6 billion in 2024/25.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund"},{"id":"GSX:IND-006:A02","type":"assumption","label":"Withdrawals wait 15 years and then equal 3 percent of the trailing five-year fund value.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund"},{"id":"GSX:IND-006:A03","type":"assumption","label":"The industrial holding company and the savings fund are different balance sheets. The fund is diversified away from South African minerals, the rand and the domestic business cycle.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund"},{"id":"GSX:IND-006:R01","type":"result","label":"In the central case the fund reaches about R258 billion in 2042, R586 billion in 2060, R893 billion in 2080 and R1.48 trillion in 2125, in constant 2026 rand.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund"},{"id":"GSX:IND-006:R02","type":"result","label":"The central annual budget transfer rises from about R6 billion when withdrawals begin to R16 billion in 2060 and R43 billion in 2125.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund"},{"id":"GSX:IND-006:C02","type":"claim","label":"The adverse case withdraws earlier, draws a larger share and earns only 1.5 percent real. The manuscript says that path ends the century with almost nothing.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/strategic-industrialisation/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund/claims/C02"},{"id":"GSX:IND-001","type":"study","label":"The South African Critical Minerals Industrial Complex","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/strategic-industrialisation/the-south-african-critical-minerals-industrial-complex"},{"id":"GSX:IND-006","type":"study","label":"The Mineral Sovereign Wealth Fund","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/strategic-industrialisation/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund"},{"id":"GSX:IND-002","type":"study","label":"The Platinum-to-Hydrogen Economy","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/strategic-industrialisation/the-platinum-to-hydrogen-economy"},{"id":"GSX:IND-003","type":"study","label":"The Manganese-to-Battery 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