{"id":"GSX:POP-004:A02","local_id":"A02","name":"2024 age-turnout pattern","statement":"Votes are estimated by applying the Electoral Commission's 2024 age-turnout pattern. Those rates come from identification scans for 9.17 million of 16.29 million voters who voted, then extrapolated.","value":"qualitative","unit":"not a scalar","type":"model assumption","provenance":"Manuscript, citing the 2024 national and provincial elections report","evidence_strength":"observed pattern, extrapolated","sensitivity":"high","alternatives":["A mobilisation path that changes youth turnout"],"href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-politics-of-an-ageing-electorate/assumptions/A02"}