{"id":"GSX:POP-004:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"In the 2025 calibration, people aged 60 or older are 15.1 percent of adults but 20.7 percent of votes cast. Applying the 2024 age-turnout pattern produces a median voter aged 43, four years older than the median adult.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:POP-004:A01","GSX:POP-004:A02","GSX:POP-004:A03"],"result":"GSX:POP-004:R01","results":["GSX:POP-004:R01"],"sensitivity":"moderate","main_limitation":"The turnout rates are a strong pattern extrapolated from identification scans, not a perfect census of every voter. The median voter is the age that splits votes cast in half. It is not one person whose wishes become policy.","source_study":"GSX:POP-004","version":"1.0","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-politics-of-an-ageing-electorate/claims/C01","supported_by":["GSX:POP-004:PDF"],"contradicted_by":[],"qualifies":[],"contradicts":[]}