{"id":"GSX:POP-004:C02","local_id":"C02","claim":"Under the baseline path, voters aged 60 or older overtake voters aged 18 to 34 around 2039 and cast 46.0 percent of votes by 2100 if age-specific turnout stays fixed. The median voter remains below retirement age. Only the accelerated-ageing scenario produces a retired median voter within the century, in 2085 with fixed turnout and in 2081 with feedback.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:POP-004:A01","GSX:POP-004:A02","GSX:POP-004:A03"],"result":"GSX:POP-004:R02","results":["GSX:POP-004:R02"],"sensitivity":"high","main_limitation":"The paths are deliberately simple cohort mechanics, not an official forecast. Accelerated ageing is a severe stress test. Mobilisation can still change the electorate even when the population cannot change quickly.","source_study":"GSX:POP-004","version":"1.0","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-politics-of-an-ageing-electorate/claims/C02","supported_by":["GSX:POP-004:PDF"],"contradicted_by":[],"qualifies":[],"contradicts":[]}