{"schema_version":"GreyResearchObject 1.2","id":"GSX:POP-006","slug":"the-price-of-another-child","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","series_number":"02","paper_number":"06","title":"The Price of Another Child","version":"1.0","status":"published","primary_question":"When does fertility support become cheaper than financing demographic decline?","summary":"When fertility support becomes cheaper than financing demographic decline.","topics":["population-decline","fiscal-policy","south-africa"],"geographies":["South Africa"],"keywords":["Population decline","Fiscal policy","South Africa","price","another","child","fertility","support","become","cheaper","financing","demographic","decline"],"related_questions":["What is the fiscal comparison between supporting another child and financing an older population?","How does population decline change the public cost of low fertility?"],"answer":{"conditional_answer":"In the average run, the median cost of one permanently additional birth ranges from about R720,000 for free childcare to R4.18 million for a parent tax exemption. The targeted family package costs about R780,000 per added birth and produces nearly 99,000 additional births per million prospective households. A cash top-up costs about R1.76 million per added birth and produces only about 12,000.","evidence_status":"modelled","assumption_ids":["GSX:POP-006:A01","GSX:POP-006:A02"],"result_ids":["GSX:POP-006:R01"],"main_limitation":"The largest payment is not the cheapest birth. A programme can pay households that would have had the child anyway, or it can only move the timing. The cost figures are medians from a stylised model, with wide 10th-to-90th percentile ranges in the manuscript.","sensitivity":"high"},"entities":["South Africa","population-decline","fiscal-policy","south-africa"],"methods":[{"id":"GSX:POP-006:M01","name":"Additional-birth cost model","model_class":"scenario model","purpose":"The model separates births that would have happened, births that are brought forward, and births that permanently add to completed family size. 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It is not a separately catalogued manuscript issue date.","authors":[{"name":"Pakang Senosha","affiliation":"University of Pretoria","slug":"pakang-senosha"}],"extraction_status":"full_text_claim_led","manuscript":{"study_id":"GSX:POP-006","source_path":"research/source/price-of-another-child/the-price-of-another-child.md","source_sha256":"14021498d3c25509698ad989cffab634db2dc07ea6881c8f037965a94a77dd24","source_bytes":37373,"character_count":37373,"word_count":5600,"headings":[{"level":1,"title":"The Price of Another Child","slug":"the-price-of-another-child","line":1},{"level":2,"title":"When fertility policy becomes cheaper than population ageing","slug":"when-fertility-policy-becomes-cheaper-than-population-ageing","line":2},{"level":1,"title":"Part I: The finding","slug":"part-i-the-finding","line":4},{"level":1,"title":"Part II: South Africa is ageing before it is rich","slug":"part-ii-south-africa-is-ageing-before-it-is-rich","line":32},{"level":1,"title":"Part III: A birth has three counterfactuals","slug":"part-iii-a-birth-has-three-counterfactuals","line":46},{"level":1,"title":"Part IV: What the seven policies actually buy","slug":"part-iv-what-the-seven-policies-actually-buy","line":68},{"level":1,"title":"Part V: Why ordinary child grants often fail to restore fertility","slug":"part-v-why-ordinary-child-grants-often-fail-to-restore-fertility","line":88},{"level":1,"title":"Part VI: Housing versus childcare","slug":"part-vi-housing-versus-childcare","line":106},{"level":1,"title":"Part VII: Male work, female work and the time bargain","slug":"part-vii-male-work-female-work-and-the-time-bargain","line":122},{"level":1,"title":"Part VIII: Relationship stability and delayed family formation","slug":"part-viii-relationship-stability-and-delayed-family-formation","line":138},{"level":1,"title":"Part IX: Postponed is not the same as forgone","slug":"part-ix-postponed-is-not-the-same-as-forgone","line":152},{"level":1,"title":"Part X: The lifetime account","slug":"part-x-the-lifetime-account","line":174},{"level":2,"title":"What the lifetime account cannot decide","slug":"what-the-lifetime-account-cannot-decide","line":199},{"level":1,"title":"Part XI: The break-even map","slug":"part-xi-the-break-even-map","line":209},{"level":1,"title":"Part XII: Can fertility decline become effectively irreversible?","slug":"part-xii-can-fertility-decline-become-effectively-irreversible","line":225},{"level":1,"title":"Part XIII: The policy design that survives the model","slug":"part-xiii-the-policy-design-that-survives-the-model","line":243},{"level":1,"title":"Part XIV: The answer","slug":"part-xiv-the-answer","line":277},{"level":1,"title":"Notes: Scope, assumptions and sources","slug":"notes-scope-assumptions-and-sources","line":291}]},"claims":[{"id":"GSX:POP-006:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"In the average run, the median cost of one permanently additional birth ranges from about R720,000 for free childcare to R4.18 million for a parent tax exemption. 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No separate open licence is stated."}],"figures":[{"id":"F01","title":"Cost per additional birth","caption":"Figure 1. The black line marks the R0.96 million net fiscal value of an additional birth in the strong labour-market case. A policy to the left can pass that fiscal test; one to the right cannot. Wide whiskers are the price of behavioural uncertainty.","alt_text":"Cost per additional birth","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/price-of-another-child/assets/cost-per-additional-birth.png","data_file":"research/source/price-of-another-child/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-006:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-006:PDF"]},{"id":"F02","title":"Birth decomposition","caption":"Figure 2. Coral represents births that remain additional after the timing effect is removed. Grey represents births brought into the five-year window but not added to completed family size. The dashed line shows the much larger baseline cohort that would arrive without any new policy.","alt_text":"Birth decomposition","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/price-of-another-child/assets/birth-decomposition.png","data_file":"research/source/price-of-another-child/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-006:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-006:PDF"]},{"id":"F03","title":"Lifetime worker value","caption":"Figure 3. Public cost is almost R0.97 million at birth in every scenario. Taxes depend on employment and productivity. Production is much larger than tax revenue but belongs to workers, firms and consumers as well as government.","alt_text":"Lifetime worker value","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/price-of-another-child/assets/lifetime-worker-value.png","data_file":"research/source/price-of-another-child/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-006:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-006:PDF"]},{"id":"F04","title":"Break-even map","caption":"Figure 4. Points above a break-even line repay their modelled public cost. Under the strong labour-market line, free childcare, flexible work and the bundle clear the threshold in the clean average scenario. Under the average line, none does.","alt_text":"Break-even map","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/price-of-another-child/assets/break-even-map.png","data_file":"research/source/price-of-another-child/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:POP-006:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:POP-006:PDF"]},{"id":"F05","title":"Delay and irreversibility","caption":"Figure 5. This is an illustrative adaptation path, not a demographic forecast. 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