{"schema_version":"GreyResearchObject 1.2","id":"GSX:SRD-004","slug":"the-public-capital-multiplier","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","series_number":"03","paper_number":"04","title":"The Public-Capital Multiplier","version":"1.0","status":"published","primary_question":"When do state-financed productive assets generate durable economic capacity?","summary":"When state-financed productive assets generate durable economic capacity.","topics":["industrialisation","fiscal-policy","south-africa"],"geographies":["South Africa"],"keywords":["Industrialisation","Fiscal policy","South Africa","public","capital","multiplier","state","financed","productive","assets","generate","durable","economic","capacity"],"related_questions":["What public-capital multiplier is at issue when grant-scale funds finance productive assets?","How can state investment become lasting capacity rather than a one-round expenditure?"],"answer":{"conditional_answer":"In the central mixed portfolio, R225 billion of public industrial capital mobilises R506 billion of gross investment, 2.25 times the public envelope. After deductions, R383 billion remains operating, 1.70 times the envelope.","evidence_status":"modelled","assumption_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:A01","GSX:SRD-004:A02","GSX:SRD-004:A03"],"result_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:R01","GSX:SRD-004:R02"],"main_limitation":"A multiplier is a description of a capital stack, not money created. Guarantees can show a high cash multiple while leaving the downside with the state. The multiples are not observed South African averages.","sensitivity":"high"},"entities":["South Africa","industrialisation","fiscal-policy","south-africa"],"methods":[{"id":"GSX:SRD-004:M01","name":"Public-capital mobilisation portfolio","model_class":"capital-stack scenario","purpose":"The model allocates R225 billion of public industrial capital across instruments and then deducts capital judged non-additional, delayed, unallocated or failed.","implementation_file":"research/source/public-capital-multiplier/model.py"}],"parameters":[{"id":"P01","name":"Public envelope","symbol":"see the manuscript","description":"The arithmetic uses R225 billion of public industrial capital.","value":"225","unit":"billion rand of public industrial capital","price_year":"2026","scenario_values":{"central":"225"},"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:PDF"]}],"equations":["The manuscript states the accounting identities in prose. No separate machine equation list is published."],"scenarios":[{"id":"S01","name":"Central mixed portfolio","role":"baseline","description":"The central mixed portfolio mobilises R506 billion of gross investment, a headline multiple of 2.25.","assumption_overrides":{"note":"The central scenario uses the registered assumptions."},"probability_status":"illustrative","probability":"not assigned","rationale":"The manuscript labels this as a scenario."}],"unresolved_questions":["When do state-financed productive assets generate durable economic capacity?"],"research_type":"counterfactual","evidence_status":"modelled","peer_review_status":"none","external_review_status":"none","ai_assistance":{"disclosure":"GreyScienx manuscripts are prepared with substantial AI assistance in research, drafting, and computation. This record is not peer-reviewed. 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It is not a separately catalogued manuscript issue date.","authors":[{"name":"Pakang Senosha","affiliation":"University of Pretoria","slug":"pakang-senosha"}],"extraction_status":"full_text_claim_led","manuscript":{"study_id":"GSX:SRD-004","source_path":"research/source/public-capital-multiplier/report.md","source_sha256":"7212206ca00ec0e5179bb59268edec4745e969a5ccbc4e5db3503452a5ed7555","source_bytes":24811,"character_count":24781,"word_count":3374,"headings":[{"level":1,"title":"The Public-Capital Multiplier","slug":"the-public-capital-multiplier","line":1},{"level":2,"title":"How much productive investment can R1 of public industrial capital mobilise—and how much risk returns to the state?","slug":"how-much-productive-investment-can-r1-of-public-industrial-capital-mobilise-and-how-much-risk-returns-to-the-state","line":3},{"level":1,"title":"PART I: The answer","slug":"part-i-the-answer","line":5},{"level":2,"title":"The useful multiplier is closer to two than to magic","slug":"the-useful-multiplier-is-closer-to-two-than-to-magic","line":7},{"level":2,"title":"Seven findings","slug":"seven-findings","line":21},{"level":1,"title":"PART II: What mobilisation means","slug":"part-ii-what-mobilisation-means","line":37},{"level":2,"title":"Six instruments, six different bargains","slug":"six-instruments-six-different-bargains","line":39},{"level":2,"title":"Funding is not financing","slug":"funding-is-not-financing","line":61},{"level":1,"title":"PART III: South Africa's institutional starting point","slug":"part-iii-south-africa-s-institutional-starting-point","line":67},{"level":2,"title":"The country already blends capital","slug":"the-country-already-blends-capital","line":69},{"level":1,"title":"PART IV: The central R225 billion portfolio","slug":"part-iv-the-central-r225-billion-portfolio","line":79},{"level":2,"title":"Diversify the way the state participates","slug":"diversify-the-way-the-state-participates","line":81},{"level":1,"title":"PART V: The multiplier is not additionality","slug":"part-v-the-multiplier-is-not-additionality","line":109},{"level":2,"title":"The counterfactual question","slug":"the-counterfactual-question","line":111},{"level":1,"title":"PART VI: Risk travels through the stack","slug":"part-vi-risk-travels-through-the-stack","line":125},{"level":2,"title":"Someone always owns the downside","slug":"someone-always-owns-the-downside","line":127},{"level":1,"title":"PART VII: The guarantee stress test","slug":"part-vii-the-guarantee-stress-test","line":147},{"level":2,"title":"R15 billion cash can face R75 billion of exposure","slug":"r15-billion-cash-can-face-r75-billion-of-exposure","line":149},{"level":1,"title":"PART VIII: Returns and ownership","slug":"part-viii-returns-and-ownership","line":165},{"level":2,"title":"Mobilising more can mean owning less","slug":"mobilising-more-can-mean-owning-less","line":167},{"level":1,"title":"PART IX: From headline to operating capital","slug":"part-ix-from-headline-to-operating-capital","line":181},{"level":2,"title":"Reconcile every deduction","slug":"reconcile-every-deduction","line":183},{"level":1,"title":"PART X: Project selection","slug":"part-x-project-selection","line":205},{"level":2,"title":"Public money should solve a named problem","slug":"public-money-should-solve-a-named-problem","line":207},{"level":1,"title":"PART XI: Best, central and adverse cases","slug":"part-xi-best-central-and-adverse-cases","line":225},{"level":2,"title":"The multiplier is an outcome, not a target engraved in advance","slug":"the-multiplier-is-an-outcome-not-a-target-engraved-in-advance","line":227},{"level":1,"title":"PART XII: Verdict","slug":"part-xii-verdict","line":245},{"level":2,"title":"Crowd in discipline as well as money","slug":"crowd-in-discipline-as-well-as-money","line":247},{"level":1,"title":"Model assumptions and interpretation","slug":"model-assumptions-and-interpretation","line":257},{"level":2,"title":"Sources","slug":"sources","line":267}]},"claims":[{"id":"GSX:SRD-004:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"In the central mixed portfolio, R225 billion of public industrial capital mobilises R506 billion of gross investment, 2.25 times the public envelope. 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No separate open licence is stated."}],"figures":[{"id":"F01","title":"Mobilisation scenarios","caption":"Figure 1. The arithmetic range is easy. The economic question is how much survives crowding-out, delay, failure and fiscal risk.","alt_text":"Mobilisation scenarios","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/public-capital-multiplier/assets/scenario.png","data_file":"research/source/public-capital-multiplier/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:PDF"]},{"id":"F02","title":"Instrument multiples","caption":"Figure 2. Illustrative gross multiples rise as public capital becomes more subordinated or contingent. They are not observed South African averages.","alt_text":"Instrument multiples","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/public-capital-multiplier/assets/multiples.png","data_file":"research/source/public-capital-multiplier/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:PDF"]},{"id":"F03","title":"Capital stacks","caption":"Figure 3. Public support occupies different positions in the stack. A lower cash share does not necessarily mean lower economic exposure.","alt_text":"Capital stacks","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/public-capital-multiplier/assets/capital-stacks.png","data_file":"research/source/public-capital-multiplier/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:PDF"]},{"id":"F04","title":"Central portfolio","caption":"Figure 4. The illustrative portfolio mobilises R506 billion of gross investment. Project preparation and skills are not leveraged because their benefit appears through the investability of other projects.","alt_text":"Central portfolio","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/public-capital-multiplier/assets/portfolio.png","data_file":"research/source/public-capital-multiplier/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:PDF"]},{"id":"F05","title":"Crowding-out","caption":"Figure 5. In a simple two-times scenario, displacement of private capital reduces net additional investment even while the gross financing package remains R450 billion.","alt_text":"Crowding-out","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/public-capital-multiplier/assets/crowding.png","data_file":"research/source/public-capital-multiplier/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:PDF"]},{"id":"F06","title":"Leverage and public risk","caption":"Figure 6. The plotted loss shares are illustrative. The point is structural: leverage can lower cash committed while increasing subordination or contingent risk.","alt_text":"Leverage and public risk","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/public-capital-multiplier/assets/risk-return.png","data_file":"research/source/public-capital-multiplier/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:PDF"]},{"id":"F07","title":"Guarantee claims","caption":"Figure 7. The distribution is a scenario set, not an actuarial forecast. Claims above R15 billion exceed the model's cash reserve and require recovery, recapitalisation or budget support.","alt_text":"Guarantee claims","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/public-capital-multiplier/assets/contingent.png","data_file":"research/source/public-capital-multiplier/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:PDF"]},{"id":"F08","title":"Public portfolio value","caption":"Figure 8. This stylised comparison shows the value of public financial claims, not total project assets or social benefits. High leverage leaves a smaller participating public claim.","alt_text":"Public portfolio value","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/public-capital-multiplier/assets/returns.png","data_file":"research/source/public-capital-multiplier/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:PDF"]},{"id":"F09","title":"Mobilisation waterfall","caption":"Figure 9. The central portfolio's R506 billion headline falls to R383 billion after illustrative deductions for non-additional capital, delay and failure.","alt_text":"Mobilisation waterfall","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/public-capital-multiplier/assets/waterfall.png","data_file":"research/source/public-capital-multiplier/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-004:PDF"]},{"id":"F10","title":"Governance gates","caption":"Figure 10. A project that cannot answer a gate returns for redesign or closure. 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