{"schema_version":"GreyResearchObject 1.2","id":"GSX:SRD-001","slug":"the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","series_number":"03","paper_number":"01","title":"The R350 Industrialisation Counterfactual","version":"1.0","status":"published","primary_question":"What productive-capital alternative to repeated emergency cash transfers does the R350 counterfactual examine?","summary":"The productive-capital alternative to repeated emergency cash transfers.","topics":["grants","industrialisation","fiscal-policy","south-africa"],"geographies":["South Africa"],"keywords":["Social grants","Industrialisation","Fiscal policy","South Africa","r350","industrialisation","counterfactual","productive","capital","alternative","repeated","emergency","cash","transfers","examine"],"related_questions":["What might South Africa have built with the SRD grant budget?","How does an industrialisation counterfactual compare with paying the R350 grant?"],"answer":{"conditional_answer":"If the SRD envelope of about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 rand had been reprioritised into an industrial fund, the best case holds about R789 billion in productive assets by 2050 and generates roughly R39 billion a year in public cash. The annual cash flow exceeds one current SRD budget year only around 2049.","evidence_status":"modelled","assumption_ids":["GSX:SRD-001:A01","GSX:SRD-001:A02"],"result_ids":["GSX:SRD-001:R01"],"main_limitation":"The envelope is a counterfactual resource, not yet a factory. The best case depends on projects being selected, built, operated and renewed for decades. This paper does not value what households would have lost if the grant had never been paid.","sensitivity":"high"},"entities":["South Africa","grants","industrialisation","fiscal-policy","south-africa"],"methods":[{"id":"GSX:SRD-001:M01","name":"SRD industrial-fund counterfactual","model_class":"financial counterfactual","purpose":"The model restates the 2020/21-2026/27 SRD programme envelope in constant 2026 rand and follows best, average and worst industrial-fund paths to 2050. The asset paths use the reprioritised-fund version of the counterfactual.","implementation_file":"research/source/r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/model.py"}],"parameters":[{"id":"P01","name":"Programme envelope","symbol":"see the manuscript","description":"The envelope from 2020/21 through the 2026/27 allocation is R225.8 billion in nominal rand, about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 purchasing power. Later years include a revised estimate and a voted allocation, not only cash already spent.","value":"253.5","unit":"billion constant 2026 rand","price_year":"2026","scenario_values":{"central":"253.5"},"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-001:PDF"]}],"equations":["The manuscript states the accounting identities in prose. 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It is not a separately catalogued manuscript issue date.","authors":[{"name":"Pakang Senosha","affiliation":"University of Pretoria","slug":"pakang-senosha"}],"extraction_status":"full_text_claim_led","manuscript":{"study_id":"GSX:SRD-001","source_path":"research/source/r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/report.md","source_sha256":"45b388b09178cdc693dbeb4ff07a1bd5c9f060541b33119c50e03e1c12a4501f","source_bytes":39668,"character_count":39608,"word_count":5647,"headings":[{"level":1,"title":"The R350 Industrialisation Counterfactual","slug":"the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual","line":1},{"level":2,"title":"What South Africa might have owned if social-relief spending had been converted into productive capital","slug":"what-south-africa-might-have-owned-if-social-relief-spending-had-been-converted-into-productive-capital","line":3},{"level":1,"title":"PART I: The result in one sitting","slug":"part-i-the-result-in-one-sitting","line":5},{"level":2,"title":"The short 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fund","slug":"part-iii-the-lifetime-of-the-alternative-fund","line":107},{"level":2,"title":"Productive assets through 2050","slug":"productive-assets-through-2050","line":109},{"level":2,"title":"When can industry pay for the grant it replaced?","slug":"when-can-industry-pay-for-the-grant-it-replaced","line":119},{"level":2,"title":"The borrowing test","slug":"the-borrowing-test","line":131},{"level":2,"title":"A practical break-even rule","slug":"a-practical-break-even-rule","line":141},{"level":1,"title":"PART IV: Who should own the alternative economy?","slug":"part-iv-who-should-own-the-alternative-economy","line":149},{"level":2,"title":"Four ownership designs","slug":"four-ownership-designs","line":151},{"level":2,"title":"The model's preferred institutional form","slug":"the-model-s-preferred-institutional-form","line":168},{"level":2,"title":"What should the fund have bought?","slug":"what-should-the-fund-have-bought","line":174},{"level":2,"title":"Employment is a result, not an asset class","slug":"employment-is-a-result-not-an-asset-class","line":188},{"level":1,"title":"PART V: Failure, uncertainty and the R1 choice","slug":"part-v-failure-uncertainty-and-the-r1-choice","line":196},{"level":2,"title":"The sensitivity map","slug":"the-sensitivity-map","line":198},{"level":2,"title":"A failure taxonomy","slug":"a-failure-taxonomy","line":208},{"level":2,"title":"Stress tests beyond the three scenarios","slug":"stress-tests-beyond-the-three-scenarios","line":220},{"level":2,"title":"R1 transferred versus R1 invested","slug":"r1-transferred-versus-r1-invested","line":226},{"level":2,"title":"The missing side of the ledger","slug":"the-missing-side-of-the-ledger","line":244},{"level":1,"title":"PART VI: What a serious policy experiment would look like","slug":"part-vi-what-a-serious-policy-experiment-would-look-like","line":254},{"level":2,"title":"The false choice and the real choice","slug":"the-false-choice-and-the-real-choice","line":256},{"level":2,"title":"Seven rules for a durable fund","slug":"seven-rules-for-a-durable-fund","line":262},{"level":2,"title":"A staged decision gate","slug":"a-staged-decision-gate","line":278},{"level":2,"title":"The verdict","slug":"the-verdict","line":284},{"level":1,"title":"APPENDIX: Model notes and source ledger","slug":"appendix-model-notes-and-source-ledger","line":294},{"level":2,"title":"Valuation date and units","slug":"valuation-date-and-units","line":296},{"level":2,"title":"Fiscal ledger used","slug":"fiscal-ledger-used","line":302},{"level":2,"title":"Principal sources","slug":"principal-sources","line":314},{"level":2,"title":"Limits","slug":"limits","line":336},{"level":2,"title":"Reproducibility checklist","slug":"reproducibility-checklist","line":342},{"level":2,"title":"How to challenge the result","slug":"how-to-challenge-the-result","line":350},{"level":2,"title":"Audit trail for future 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Constant-rand bars show the purchasing power of each year's allocation in 2026 terms.","alt_text":"Annual SRD ledger","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/assets/srd-ledger.png","data_file":"research/source/r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:SRD-001:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-001:PDF"]},{"id":"F02","title":"Mechanical fund","caption":"Figure 2. A gross financial benchmark. These balances precede deployment lags, project losses, operating costs and debt financing.","alt_text":"Mechanical fund","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/assets/gross-fund-benchmark.png","data_file":"research/source/r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:SRD-001:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-001:PDF"]},{"id":"F03","title":"Fund anatomy","caption":"Figure 3. Modelled end-2026 fund anatomy. 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Net public position for a separately borrowed fund. Positive values mean modelled fund value plus cumulative public cash exceeds the associated debt; this is not a forecast of total national debt.","alt_text":"Borrowing test","image_file":"C:/Users/Deriv/Desktop/GreyScienx/research/source/r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/assets/borrowed-fund-test.png","data_file":"research/source/r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/model_results.json","result_ids":["GSX:SRD-001:R01"],"source_ids":["GSX:SRD-001:PDF"]},{"id":"F07","title":"Sensitivity","caption":"Figure 7. Productive asset value in 2050 under alternative survival and real-growth assumptions. 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