{"id":"GSX:SRD-001:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"If the SRD envelope of about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 rand had been reprioritised into an industrial fund, the best case holds about R789 billion in productive assets by 2050 and generates roughly R39 billion a year in public cash. The annual cash flow exceeds one current SRD budget year only around 2049.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:SRD-001:A01","GSX:SRD-001:A02"],"result":"GSX:SRD-001:R01","results":["GSX:SRD-001:R01"],"sensitivity":"high","main_limitation":"The envelope is a counterfactual resource, not yet a factory. The best case depends on projects being selected, built, operated and renewed for decades. This paper does not value what households would have lost if the grant had never been paid.","source_study":"GSX:SRD-001","version":"1.0","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/claims/C01","supported_by":["GSX:SRD-001:PDF"],"contradicted_by":[],"qualifies":[],"contradicts":[]}