{"id":"GSX:SRD-002:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"Withholding the SRD envelope has a central explicit welfare cost of R426.9 billion in welfare-equivalent 2026 rand, about R1.68 of social cost for every R1 withheld. The scenario range is R237 billion to R743 billion.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:SRD-002:A01","GSX:SRD-002:A02","GSX:SRD-002:A03"],"result":"GSX:SRD-002:R01","results":["GSX:SRD-002:R01"],"sensitivity":"high","main_limitation":"This is not a Treasury invoice, a forecast or a confidence interval. Crime, unrest and household dissolution are left outside the priced total. The central case is an analytical benchmark.","source_study":"GSX:SRD-002","version":"1.0","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant/claims/C01","supported_by":["GSX:SRD-002:PDF"],"contradicted_by":[],"qualifies":[],"contradicts":[]}