{"id":"GSX:POP-002:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"In these scenarios, private wealth at 60 is R4.84 million for a stable formal career, R3.99 million after a five-year youth shock, R3.09 million if entry waits until 30, R0.91 million for a mostly informal career, and R0.15 million under persistent exclusion. The amounts are constant 2026 rand and are anchored to the same R30,000 monthly opportunity at age 25.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:POP-002:A01","GSX:POP-002:A02","GSX:POP-002:A03"],"result":"GSX:POP-002:R01","results":["GSX:POP-002:R01"],"sensitivity":"high","main_limitation":"These are conditional scenarios, not forecasts. Informal work is modelled as lower-paid work with weaker pension coverage, not as work without value. Years worked are not enough: earnings, coverage, and the contribution rate decide how much work becomes retirement wealth.","source_study":"GSX:POP-002","version":"1.0","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis/claims/C01","supported_by":["GSX:POP-002:PDF"],"contradicted_by":[],"qualifies":[],"contradicts":[]}