{"id":"GSX:POP-002:C02","local_id":"C02","claim":"Under the persistent-exclusion profile, the modelled grant provides 82 percent of retirement cash income. Scaled to one million such lives, the manuscript reports a lifetime fiscal balance R1.80 trillion weaker, mostly from missing revenue plus higher grants.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:POP-002:A01","GSX:POP-002:A03","GSX:POP-002:A04"],"result":"GSX:POP-002:R02","results":["GSX:POP-002:R02","GSX:POP-002:R03"],"sensitivity":"high","main_limitation":"The transfer is a simplified analytical top-up, not the legal social-grant means test. Healthcare costs are the same for every profile, so the model does not claim that unemployment itself causes ill health. The fiscal gap is missing tax capacity and greater cash-transfer exposure.","source_study":"GSX:POP-002","version":"1.0","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis/claims/C02","supported_by":["GSX:POP-002:PDF"],"contradicted_by":[],"qualifies":[],"contradicts":[]}