{"schema_version":"GreyResearchGraph 1.0","study_id":"GSX:POP-002","node_count":28,"edge_count":42,"nodes":[{"id":"GSX:POP-002:C01","type":"claim","label":"In these scenarios, private wealth at 60 is R4.84 million for a stable formal career, R3.99 million after a five-year youth shock, R3.09 million if entry waits until 30, R0.91 million for a mostly informal career, and R0.15 million under persistent exclusion. The amounts are constant 2026 rand and are anchored to the same R30,000 monthly opportunity at age 25.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:A01","type":"assumption","label":"Six representative lives run from age 20 to 100. Each has the same age-specific earning opportunity, anchored at R30,000 a month at age 25. Potential salary grows by 1.5 percent a year in real terms. Amounts are constant 2026 rand.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:A02","type":"assumption","label":"Formal workers save 15 percent and the private account earns a smooth 3 percent net real return. Retirement begins at 60. The private pension is price-indexed and calibrated to last through age 100.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:A03","type":"assumption","label":"The profiles differ by access to work: stable formal employment from 20, a five-year youth shock, entry only at 30, an interrupted career, mostly informal work, and persistent exclusion.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:R01","type":"result","label":"Private wealth at 60 is R4.84 million after a stable formal career, R3.99 million after a five-year youth shock, R3.09 million if work starts at 30, R0.91 million after a mostly informal career, and R0.15 million under persistent exclusion.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:C02","type":"claim","label":"Under the persistent-exclusion profile, the modelled grant provides 82 percent of retirement cash income. Scaled to one million such lives, the manuscript reports a lifetime fiscal balance R1.80 trillion weaker, mostly from missing revenue plus higher grants.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis/claims/C02"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:A04","type":"assumption","label":"The cash transfer is an analytical top-up, not the legal SASSA means test. Its maximum is R2,400 a month. Healthcare costs are held equal across profiles.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:R02","type":"result","label":"Under persistent exclusion, the modelled grant is 82 percent of retirement cash income.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:R03","type":"result","label":"One million excluded lives produce a modelled lifetime fiscal balance R1.80 trillion weaker, mostly from missing revenue plus higher grants.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"},{"id":"GSX:POP-001","type":"study","label":"When Retirement Becomes Impossible","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/when-retirement-becomes-impossible"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002","type":"study","label":"Today’s Unemployment Is Tomorrow’s Pension Crisis","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"},{"id":"GSX:POP","type":"series","label":"Population Futures","evidence_status":null,"href":"https://greyscienx.com/series/population-futures"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:M01","type":"model","label":"Lifetime cohort from 20 to 100","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:PDF","type":"source","label":"Today’s Unemployment Is Tomorrow’s Pension Crisis","evidence_status":null,"href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis.pdf"},{"id":"GSX:TOPIC:unemployment","type":"topic","label":"Unemployment","evidence_status":null,"href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/unemployment"},{"id":"GSX:TOPIC:pensions","type":"topic","label":"Pensions","evidence_status":null,"href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/pensions"},{"id":"GSX:TOPIC:retirement","type":"topic","label":"Retirement","evidence_status":null,"href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/retirement"},{"id":"GSX:TOPIC:south-africa","type":"topic","label":"South Africa","evidence_status":null,"href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/south-africa"},{"id":"GSX:POP-003","type":"study","label":"Does Raising the Retirement Age Actually Work?","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work"},{"id":"GSX:POP-004","type":"study","label":"The Politics of an Ageing Electorate","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-politics-of-an-ageing-electorate"},{"id":"GSX:POP-005","type":"study","label":"Emergency Ageing Austerity","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/emergency-ageing-austerity"},{"id":"GSX:POP-006","type":"study","label":"The Price of Another Child","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-price-of-another-child"},{"id":"GSX:POP-007","type":"study","label":"The Hundred-Year Life","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-hundred-year-life"},{"id":"GSX:POP-008","type":"study","label":"Inheritance After Retirement","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/inheritance-after-retirement"},{"id":"GSX:POP-009","type":"study","label":"How to Shrink a Country Without Breaking It","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/how-to-shrink-a-country-without-breaking-it"},{"id":"GSX:POP-010","type":"study","label":"The Scarce-Worker Economy","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-scarce-worker-economy"},{"id":"GSX:POP-011","type":"study","label":"The Population System","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-population-system"},{"id":"GSX:POP-012","type":"study","label":"Extreme Fiscal Pressure","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/extreme-fiscal-pressure"}],"edges":[{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002:C01","predicate":"depends_on","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:A01","note":"Registered dependency."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002:C01","predicate":"depends_on","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:A02","note":"Registered dependency."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002:C01","predicate":"depends_on","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:A03","note":"Registered dependency."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002:C01","predicate":"derived_from","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:R01","note":"Registered result."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002:C02","predicate":"depends_on","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:A01","note":"Registered dependency."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002:C02","predicate":"depends_on","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:A03","note":"Registered dependency."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002:C02","predicate":"depends_on","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:A04","note":"Registered dependency."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002:C02","predicate":"derived_from","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:R02","note":"Registered result."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002:C02","predicate":"derived_from","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:R03","note":"Registered result."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-001","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-002","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"part_of","object_id":"GSX:POP","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"has_claim","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:C01","note":"Registered claim."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002:C01","predicate":"generated_by","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:M01","note":"Lifetime cohort from 20 to 100"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002:C01","predicate":"supported_by","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:PDF","note":"Source registered on the conditional claim."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"has_claim","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:C02","note":"Registered claim."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002:C02","predicate":"generated_by","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:M01","note":"Lifetime cohort from 20 to 100"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002:C02","predicate":"supported_by","object_id":"GSX:POP-002:PDF","note":"Source registered on the conditional claim."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"has_topic","object_id":"GSX:TOPIC:unemployment","note":"Registered topic."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"has_topic","object_id":"GSX:TOPIC:pensions","note":"Registered topic."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"has_topic","object_id":"GSX:TOPIC:retirement","note":"Registered topic."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"has_topic","object_id":"GSX:TOPIC:south-africa","note":"Registered topic."},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-001","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-003","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-004","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-005","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-006","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-007","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-008","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-009","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-010","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-011","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-002","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-012","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-003","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-002","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-004","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-002","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-005","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-002","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-006","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-002","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-007","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-002","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-008","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-002","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-009","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-002","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-010","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-002","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-011","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-002","note":"Population Futures"},{"subject_id":"GSX:POP-012","predicate":"related_to","object_id":"GSX:POP-002","note":"Population Futures"}]}