{"id":"GSX:POP-001:C01","local_id":"C01","claim":"In this funded-account model, a worker who starts at 25 on R30,000 a month, contributes 12 percent, and earns a 3 percent net real return exhausts a pension equal to 60 percent of final salary around age 70 if retirement begins at 60 and life lasts to 90.","claim_type":"conditional","status":"conditional","evidence_status":"modelled","confidence":null,"depends_on":["GSX:POP-001:A01","GSX:POP-001:A02"],"result":"GSX:POP-001:R01","results":["GSX:POP-001:R01"],"sensitivity":"high","main_limitation":"This is one modelled path, not a forecast and not South Africa's current retirement system. Amounts are constant 2026 rand before personal income tax. A value below zero is a funding shortfall, not literal bank debt. The manuscript also shows that a higher contribution, a higher return, or a later retirement age can support the same target.","source_study":"GSX:POP-001","version":"1.0","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/when-retirement-becomes-impossible/claims/C01","supported_by":["GSX:POP-001:PDF"],"contradicted_by":[],"qualifies":[],"contradicts":[]}