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The modelled pot at retirement is R3.25 million.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/when-retirement-becomes-impossible"},{"id":"GSX:POP-001:C02","type":"claim","label":"Under those same age-60 and age-90 assumptions, the account supports only about 27 percent of final salary for life. It does not support a 60 percent replacement at a 12 percent contribution and a 3 percent real return.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/when-retirement-becomes-impossible/claims/C02"},{"id":"GSX:POP-001:R02","type":"result","label":"Under the same age-60 and age-90 assumptions, a 12 percent contribution with a 3 percent real return supports only about 27 percent of final salary for life.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/when-retirement-becomes-impossible"},{"id":"GSX:POP-001:C03","type":"claim","label":"In the public-pension lens, the required pension-only payroll rate is 18 percent in the short-retirement case, 42 percent in the ageing-squeeze case, and 65 percent in the century-life stress case. Holding fertility at 1.7, coverage at 80 percent, and the benefit at 40 percent with price indexation, a rate at or below 20 percent requires retirement near 71, 75, or 79 as longevity rises from 90 to 100.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/when-retirement-becomes-impossible/claims/C03"},{"id":"GSX:POP-001:A03","type":"assumption","label":"The public model is a pay-as-you-go lens, not a replica of South Africa's current tax and grant system. Working life begins at 20, 80 percent of working-age people contribute, and migration is excluded. Survival to the scenario age is rectangular.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/when-retirement-becomes-impossible"},{"id":"GSX:POP-001:A04","type":"assumption","label":"A required pension-only payroll rate at or below 20 percent is the manuscript's comparison ceiling. It is not a legal or universal maximum.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/when-retirement-becomes-impossible"},{"id":"GSX:POP-001:R03","type":"result","label":"The public model needs an 18 percent pension-only payroll rate in the short-retirement case, 42 percent in the ageing-squeeze case, and 65 percent in the century-life stress case.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/when-retirement-becomes-impossible"},{"id":"GSX:POP-001:R04","type":"result","label":"With fertility at 1.7, 80 percent coverage, a 40 percent public benefit, and price indexation, a payroll rate at or below 20 percent requires retirement near 71 if longevity is 90, 75 if it is 95, and 79 if it is 100.","evidence_status":"modelled","href":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/when-retirement-becomes-impossible"},{"id":"GSX:POP-001","type":"study","label":"When Retirement Becomes 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