{"slug":"r350-counterfactual","number":"03","title":"The R350 Counterfactual","question":"What South Africa might have built with the SRD budget—and what society would have lost by withholding it.","study_count":5,"geographies":["South Africa"],"topics":["grants","industrialisation","fiscal-policy","south-africa"],"studies":[{"id":"GSX:SRD-001","slug":"the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual","title":"The R350 Industrialisation Counterfactual","primary_question":"What productive-capital alternative to repeated emergency cash transfers does the R350 counterfactual examine?","summary":"The productive-capital alternative to repeated emergency cash transfers.","research_type":"counterfactual","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:SRD-002","slug":"the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant","title":"The Welfare Cost of Not Paying the Grant","primary_question":"What poverty, consumption, and social costs does the industrialisation counterfactual leave out when the grant is not paid?","summary":"The poverty, consumption and social cost omitted from the industrialisation counterfactual.","research_type":"counterfactual","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:SRD-003","slug":"consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow","title":"Consumption Today or Productive Capital Tomorrow?","primary_question":"What is the timing and distributional trade-off between relief today and productive capital tomorrow?","summary":"The timing and distributional trade-off between relief and investment.","research_type":"counterfactual","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:SRD-004","slug":"the-public-capital-multiplier","title":"The Public-Capital Multiplier","primary_question":"When do state-financed productive assets generate durable economic capacity?","summary":"When state-financed productive assets generate durable economic capacity.","research_type":"counterfactual","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-public-capital-multiplier","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-public-capital-multiplier/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-public-capital-multiplier/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-public-capital-multiplier","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-public-capital-multiplier.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:SRD-005","slug":"the-r200-billion-factory","title":"The R200 Billion Factory","primary_question":"What industrial deployment does a scenario at the scale of the grant programme describe?","summary":"A concrete industrial deployment scenario at the scale of the grant programme.","research_type":"counterfactual","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r200-billion-factory","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r200-billion-factory/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-r200-billion-factory/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-r200-billion-factory","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r200-billion-factory.pdf"}}],"links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/series/r350-counterfactual","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/series/r350-counterfactual"}}