{"slug":"fiscal-policy","title":"Fiscal policy","definition":"Studies of public budgets under demographic change, grants, and emergency fiscal pressure.","connected_topics":[{"slug":"retirement","title":"Retirement","href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/retirement"},{"slug":"industrialisation","title":"Industrialisation","href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/industrialisation"},{"slug":"population-decline","title":"Population decline","href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/population-decline"},{"slug":"grants","title":"Social grants","href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/grants"}],"study_count":11,"studies":[{"id":"GSX:POP-003","slug":"does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work","title":"Does Raising the Retirement Age Actually Work?","primary_question":"Does raising the retirement age still work once youth unemployment, productivity, and disability are taken into account?","summary":"Later retirement tested against youth unemployment, productivity and disability.","research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:POP-004","slug":"the-politics-of-an-ageing-electorate","title":"The Politics of an Ageing Electorate","primary_question":"How can voter age structure redirect spending and intergenerational transfers?","summary":"How voter age structure can redirect spending and intergenerational transfers.","research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-politics-of-an-ageing-electorate","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-politics-of-an-ageing-electorate/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-politics-of-an-ageing-electorate/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-politics-of-an-ageing-electorate","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-politics-of-an-ageing-electorate.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:POP-005","slug":"emergency-ageing-austerity","title":"Emergency Ageing Austerity","primary_question":"Which policy packages for closing an ageing-related fiscal deficit are examined for lower welfare loss?","summary":"Policy packages for closing an ageing-related fiscal deficit with lower welfare loss.","research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/emergency-ageing-austerity","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/emergency-ageing-austerity/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/emergency-ageing-austerity/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/emergency-ageing-austerity","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/emergency-ageing-austerity.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:POP-006","slug":"the-price-of-another-child","title":"The Price of Another Child","primary_question":"When does fertility support become cheaper than financing demographic decline?","summary":"When fertility support becomes cheaper than financing demographic decline.","research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-price-of-another-child","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-price-of-another-child/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-price-of-another-child/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-price-of-another-child","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-price-of-another-child.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:POP-011","slug":"the-population-system","title":"The Population System","primary_question":"How do the population studies connect as one policy system?","summary":"A synthesis of the ten population studies as one connected policy system.","research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-population-system","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-population-system/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-population-system/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-population-system","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-population-system.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:POP-012","slug":"extreme-fiscal-pressure","title":"Extreme Fiscal Pressure","primary_question":"How could emergency government measures introduced in 2050 alter the population system?","summary":"How emergency government measures introduced in 2050 could alter the population system.","research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/extreme-fiscal-pressure","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/extreme-fiscal-pressure/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/extreme-fiscal-pressure/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/extreme-fiscal-pressure","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/extreme-fiscal-pressure.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:SRD-001","slug":"the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual","title":"The R350 Industrialisation Counterfactual","primary_question":"What productive-capital alternative to repeated emergency cash transfers does the R350 counterfactual examine?","summary":"The productive-capital alternative to repeated emergency cash transfers.","research_type":"counterfactual","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:SRD-002","slug":"the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant","title":"The Welfare Cost of Not Paying the Grant","primary_question":"What poverty, consumption, and social costs does the industrialisation counterfactual leave out when the grant is not paid?","summary":"The poverty, consumption and social cost omitted from the industrialisation counterfactual.","research_type":"counterfactual","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:SRD-003","slug":"consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow","title":"Consumption Today or Productive Capital Tomorrow?","primary_question":"What is the timing and distributional trade-off between relief today and productive capital tomorrow?","summary":"The timing and distributional trade-off between relief and investment.","research_type":"counterfactual","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:SRD-004","slug":"the-public-capital-multiplier","title":"The Public-Capital Multiplier","primary_question":"When do state-financed productive assets generate durable economic capacity?","summary":"When state-financed productive assets generate durable economic capacity.","research_type":"counterfactual","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-public-capital-multiplier","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-public-capital-multiplier/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-public-capital-multiplier/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-public-capital-multiplier","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-public-capital-multiplier.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:IND-006","slug":"the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund","title":"The Mineral Sovereign Wealth Fund","primary_question":"What fiscal architecture converts exhaustible mineral resources into permanent public wealth?","summary":"A fiscal architecture for converting exhaustible resources into permanent public wealth.","research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"strategic-industrialisation","series_title":"Strategic Industrialisation","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/strategic-industrialisation/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/strategic-industrialisation/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/strategic-industrialisation/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund.pdf"}}],"related_questions":["What happens to a higher retirement age when younger workers are unemployed?","How do productivity and disability change the case for a later retirement age?","How does an ageing electorate change the politics of public spending?","What happens to intergenerational transfers when the median voter is older?","How can an ageing-related fiscal deficit be closed?","What is the welfare comparison among emergency responses to demographic fiscal pressure?","What is the fiscal comparison between supporting another child and financing an older population?","How does population decline change the public cost of low fertility?"],"claims":[{"id":"GSX:POP-003:C01","claim":"In the average scenario, raising the comparison retirement age from 60 to 65 produces a cumulative modelled public gain of R213 billion for a one-million-person cohort. Age 70 produces R369 billion and age 75 produces R448 billion. The last five-year step adds R79 billion, about half the gain from moving from 65 to 70.","study_id":"GSX:POP-003","study_title":"Does Raising the Retirement Age Actually Work?","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:POP-004:C01","claim":"In the 2025 calibration, people aged 60 or older are 15.1 percent of adults but 20.7 percent of votes cast. Applying the 2024 age-turnout pattern produces a median voter aged 43, four years older than the median adult.","study_id":"GSX:POP-004","study_title":"The Politics of an Ageing Electorate","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-politics-of-an-ageing-electorate/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:POP-005:C01","claim":"Among five packages that each close a hypothetical R150 billion annual ageing gap, the balanced transition has the lowest modelled welfare-loss index, 64.5. The low-visible-pain package, which leans on inflation, diffuse cuts, and continuing borrowing, scores 107.3 and leaves about R720 billion of emergency debt after ten years.","study_id":"GSX:POP-005","study_title":"Emergency Ageing Austerity","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/emergency-ageing-austerity/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:POP-006:C01","claim":"In the average run, the median cost of one permanently additional birth ranges from about R720,000 for free childcare to R4.18 million for a parent tax exemption. The targeted family package costs about R780,000 per added birth and produces nearly 99,000 additional births per million prospective households. A cash top-up costs about R1.76 million per added birth and produces only about 12,000.","study_id":"GSX:POP-006","study_title":"The Price of Another Child","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-price-of-another-child/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:POP-011:C01","claim":"Demographic pressure, in this synthesis, is rarely a shortage of people in the abstract. It is a failure of timing, matching and institutions. Income can arrive after it is useful, workers can exist outside the jobs that need them, homes can stand in the wrong places, and reform can begin after the cheaper options have expired.","study_id":"GSX:POP-011","study_title":"The Population System","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-population-system/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:POP-012:C01","claim":"Every modelled path closes the first-year accounting gap of about R1.23 trillion. In the guardrailed case that ends in 2052, real output in 2080 is 1.2 percent below the no-shock path and the present value of lost output from 2050 to 2080 is R3.7 trillion.","study_id":"GSX:POP-012","study_title":"Extreme Fiscal Pressure","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/extreme-fiscal-pressure/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-001:C01","claim":"If the SRD envelope of about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 rand had been reprioritised into an industrial fund, the best case holds about R789 billion in productive assets by 2050 and generates roughly R39 billion a year in public cash. The annual cash flow exceeds one current SRD budget year only around 2049.","study_id":"GSX:SRD-001","study_title":"The R350 Industrialisation Counterfactual","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-002:C01","claim":"Withholding the SRD envelope has a central explicit welfare cost of R426.9 billion in welfare-equivalent 2026 rand, about R1.68 of social cost for every R1 withheld. The scenario range is R237 billion to R743 billion.","study_id":"GSX:SRD-002","study_title":"The Welfare Cost of Not Paying the Grant","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-003:C01","claim":"At a 6 percent real discount rate, the best industrial case overtakes the central value of the cash transfer in 2040 when the surviving public asset is counted, and in 2051 when only operating benefits are counted.","study_id":"GSX:SRD-003","study_title":"Consumption Today or Productive Capital Tomorrow?","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-004:C01","claim":"In the central mixed portfolio, R225 billion of public industrial capital mobilises R506 billion of gross investment, 2.25 times the public envelope. After deductions, R383 billion remains operating, 1.70 times the envelope.","study_id":"GSX:SRD-004","study_title":"The Public-Capital Multiplier","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-public-capital-multiplier/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:IND-006:C01","claim":"Under the central rule, the fund reaches about R586 billion by 2060 and transfers about R16 billion that year, rising to R1.48 trillion and R43 billion by 2125, in constant 2026 rand.","study_id":"GSX:IND-006","study_title":"The Mineral Sovereign Wealth Fund","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/strategic-industrialisation/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund/claims/C01"}],"assumptions":[{"id":"GSX:POP-004:A02","name":"2024 age-turnout pattern","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-004","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-politics-of-an-ageing-electorate"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-003:A03","name":"Asset-inclusive test","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:SRD-003","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow"},{"id":"GSX:POP-003:A02","name":"Average labour-market case","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-003","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-003:A02","name":"Central discount rate","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:SRD-003","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow"},{"id":"GSX:IND-006:A02","name":"Central withdrawal rule","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:IND-006","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/strategic-industrialisation/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund"},{"id":"GSX:POP-012:A01","name":"Common 2050 shock","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-012","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/extreme-fiscal-pressure"},{"id":"GSX:POP-003:A03","name":"Continuous private saver","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-003","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-002:A02","name":"Distributional weights","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:SRD-002","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant"}],"datasets":[{"id":"D01","title":"Does Raising the Retirement Age Actually Work?","study_id":"GSX:POP-003","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"The Politics of an Ageing Electorate","study_id":"GSX:POP-004","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-politics-of-an-ageing-electorate/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"Emergency Ageing Austerity","study_id":"GSX:POP-005","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/emergency-ageing-austerity/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"The Price of Another Child","study_id":"GSX:POP-006","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-price-of-another-child/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"The Population System","study_id":"GSX:POP-011","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-population-system/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"Extreme Fiscal Pressure","study_id":"GSX:POP-012","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/extreme-fiscal-pressure/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"The R350 Industrialisation Counterfactual","study_id":"GSX:SRD-001","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"The Welfare Cost of Not Paying the Grant","study_id":"GSX:SRD-002","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"Consumption Today or Productive Capital Tomorrow?","study_id":"GSX:SRD-003","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"The Public-Capital Multiplier","study_id":"GSX:SRD-004","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-public-capital-multiplier/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"The Mineral Sovereign Wealth Fund","study_id":"GSX:IND-006","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/strategic-industrialisation/the-mineral-sovereign-wealth-fund/data"}],"links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/fiscal-policy","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/topics/fiscal-policy"}}