{"slug":"grants","title":"Social grants","definition":"Studies of the SRD grant budget, the cost of withholding it, and other uses of the same funds.","connected_topics":[{"slug":"fiscal-policy","title":"Fiscal policy","href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/fiscal-policy"},{"slug":"industrialisation","title":"Industrialisation","href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/industrialisation"},{"slug":"south-africa","title":"South Africa","href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/south-africa"}],"study_count":4,"studies":[{"id":"GSX:SRD-001","slug":"the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual","title":"The R350 Industrialisation Counterfactual","primary_question":"What productive-capital alternative to repeated emergency cash transfers does the R350 counterfactual examine?","summary":"The productive-capital alternative to repeated emergency cash transfers.","research_type":"counterfactual","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:SRD-002","slug":"the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant","title":"The Welfare Cost of Not Paying the Grant","primary_question":"What poverty, consumption, and social costs does the industrialisation counterfactual leave out when the grant is not paid?","summary":"The poverty, consumption and social cost omitted from the industrialisation counterfactual.","research_type":"counterfactual","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:SRD-003","slug":"consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow","title":"Consumption Today or Productive Capital Tomorrow?","primary_question":"What is the timing and distributional trade-off between relief today and productive capital tomorrow?","summary":"The timing and distributional trade-off between relief and investment.","research_type":"counterfactual","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:SRD-005","slug":"the-r200-billion-factory","title":"The R200 Billion Factory","primary_question":"What industrial deployment does a scenario at the scale of the grant programme describe?","summary":"A concrete industrial deployment scenario at the scale of the grant programme.","research_type":"counterfactual","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"r350-counterfactual","series_title":"The R350 Counterfactual","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r200-billion-factory","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r200-billion-factory/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-r200-billion-factory/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-r200-billion-factory","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r200-billion-factory.pdf"}}],"related_questions":["What might South Africa have built with the SRD grant budget?","How does an industrialisation counterfactual compare with paying the R350 grant?","What is the welfare cost of withholding the SRD grant?","Which social costs sit outside a productive-capital account of the grant budget?","Who bears the wait if grant spending is redirected toward investment?","How does the R350 choice split between consumption and productive capital?","What does a factory programme at R200 billion scale contain?","How is grant-scale public money represented as industrial plant?"],"claims":[{"id":"GSX:SRD-001:C01","claim":"If the SRD envelope of about R253.5 billion in constant 2026 rand had been reprioritised into an industrial fund, the best case holds about R789 billion in productive assets by 2050 and generates roughly R39 billion a year in public cash. The annual cash flow exceeds one current SRD budget year only around 2049.","study_id":"GSX:SRD-001","study_title":"The R350 Industrialisation Counterfactual","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-002:C01","claim":"Withholding the SRD envelope has a central explicit welfare cost of R426.9 billion in welfare-equivalent 2026 rand, about R1.68 of social cost for every R1 withheld. The scenario range is R237 billion to R743 billion.","study_id":"GSX:SRD-002","study_title":"The Welfare Cost of Not Paying the Grant","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-003:C01","claim":"At a 6 percent real discount rate, the best industrial case overtakes the central value of the cash transfer in 2040 when the surviving public asset is counted, and in 2051 when only operating benefits are counted.","study_id":"GSX:SRD-003","study_title":"Consumption Today or Productive Capital Tomorrow?","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-005:C01","claim":"A credible R225 billion programme could establish 34 industrial modules and, in the central case, support about 11,100 direct operating jobs, roughly 10,000 supplier jobs and R108 billion of annual sales.","study_id":"GSX:SRD-005","study_title":"The R200 Billion Factory","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r200-billion-factory/claims/C01"}],"assumptions":[{"id":"GSX:SRD-003:A03","name":"Asset-inclusive test","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:SRD-003","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-003:A02","name":"Central discount rate","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:SRD-003","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-002:A02","name":"Distributional weights","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:SRD-002","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-005:A02","name":"Modular production core","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:SRD-005","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r200-billion-factory"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-001:A02","name":"Reprioritised fund","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:SRD-001","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-005:A03","name":"Utilisation hinge","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:SRD-005","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r200-billion-factory"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-001:A03","name":"Welfare is not counted here","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:SRD-001","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual"},{"id":"GSX:SRD-005:A01","name":"Envelope and split","sensitivity":"moderate","study_id":"GSX:SRD-005","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r200-billion-factory"}],"datasets":[{"id":"D01","title":"The R350 Industrialisation Counterfactual","study_id":"GSX:SRD-001","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r350-industrialisation-counterfactual/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"The Welfare Cost of Not Paying the Grant","study_id":"GSX:SRD-002","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-welfare-cost-of-not-paying-the-grant/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"Consumption Today or Productive Capital Tomorrow?","study_id":"GSX:SRD-003","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/consumption-today-or-productive-capital-tomorrow/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"The R200 Billion Factory","study_id":"GSX:SRD-005","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/r350-counterfactual/the-r200-billion-factory/data"}],"links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/grants","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/topics/grants"}}