{"slug":"pensions","title":"Pensions","definition":"Studies that follow work and unemployment into old-age income and public cost.","connected_topics":[{"slug":"retirement","title":"Retirement","href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/retirement"},{"slug":"unemployment","title":"Unemployment","href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/unemployment"},{"slug":"fiscal-policy","title":"Fiscal policy","href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/fiscal-policy"}],"study_count":2,"studies":[{"id":"GSX:POP-001","slug":"when-retirement-becomes-impossible","title":"When Retirement Becomes Impossible","primary_question":"What are the demographic and financial limits of retirement at 60?","summary":"The demographic and financial limits of retirement at 60.","research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/when-retirement-becomes-impossible","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/when-retirement-becomes-impossible/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/when-retirement-becomes-impossible/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/when-retirement-becomes-impossible","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/when-retirement-becomes-impossible.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:POP-002","slug":"todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis","title":"Today’s Unemployment Is Tomorrow’s Pension Crisis","primary_question":"How does youth unemployment, followed across a lifetime, become old-age dependence?","summary":"Youth unemployment followed across a lifetime and into old-age dependence.","research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis.pdf"}}],"related_questions":["Under what conditions does retirement at 60 remain financially viable?","How do ageing and lifetime finances constrain retirement at a fixed age?","How can today's unemployment become tomorrow's pension pressure?","What happens to old-age income when early working years are spent unemployed?"],"claims":[{"id":"GSX:POP-001:C01","claim":"In this funded-account model, a worker who starts at 25 on R30,000 a month, contributes 12 percent, and earns a 3 percent net real return exhausts a pension equal to 60 percent of final salary around age 70 if retirement begins at 60 and life lasts to 90.","study_id":"GSX:POP-001","study_title":"When Retirement Becomes Impossible","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/when-retirement-becomes-impossible/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:C01","claim":"In these scenarios, private wealth at 60 is R4.84 million for a stable formal career, R3.99 million after a five-year youth shock, R3.09 million if entry waits until 30, R0.91 million for a mostly informal career, and R0.15 million under persistent exclusion. The amounts are constant 2026 rand and are anchored to the same R30,000 monthly opportunity at age 25.","study_id":"GSX:POP-002","study_title":"Today’s Unemployment Is Tomorrow’s Pension Crisis","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis/claims/C01"}],"assumptions":[{"id":"GSX:POP-001:A02","name":"Age-60 funded path","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-001","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/when-retirement-becomes-impossible"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:A01","name":"Common earning opportunity","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-002","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:A02","name":"Formal saving and return","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-002","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"},{"id":"GSX:POP-001:A03","name":"Public pension lens","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-001","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/when-retirement-becomes-impossible"},{"id":"GSX:POP-001:A01","name":"Representative funded saver","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-001","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/when-retirement-becomes-impossible"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:A03","name":"Work histories","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-002","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"},{"id":"GSX:POP-001:A04","name":"Payroll comparison line","sensitivity":"moderate","study_id":"GSX:POP-001","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/when-retirement-becomes-impossible"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:A04","name":"Simplified public top-up","sensitivity":"moderate","study_id":"GSX:POP-002","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"}],"datasets":[{"id":"D01","title":"When Retirement Becomes Impossible","study_id":"GSX:POP-001","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/when-retirement-becomes-impossible/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"Today’s Unemployment Is Tomorrow’s Pension Crisis","study_id":"GSX:POP-002","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis/data"}],"links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/pensions","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/topics/pensions"}}