{"slug":"unemployment","title":"Unemployment","definition":"Studies of joblessness carried across a working life and into later public cost.","connected_topics":[{"slug":"pensions","title":"Pensions","href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/pensions"},{"slug":"retirement","title":"Retirement","href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/retirement"},{"slug":"population-decline","title":"Population decline","href":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/population-decline"}],"study_count":3,"studies":[{"id":"GSX:POP-002","slug":"todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis","title":"Today’s Unemployment Is Tomorrow’s Pension Crisis","primary_question":"How does youth unemployment, followed across a lifetime, become old-age dependence?","summary":"Youth unemployment followed across a lifetime and into old-age dependence.","research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:POP-003","slug":"does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work","title":"Does Raising the Retirement Age Actually Work?","primary_question":"Does raising the retirement age still work once youth unemployment, productivity, and disability are taken into account?","summary":"Later retirement tested against youth unemployment, productivity and disability.","research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work.pdf"}},{"id":"GSX:POP-010","slug":"the-scarce-worker-economy","title":"The Scarce-Worker Economy","primary_question":"Can automation, productivity, and immigration substitute for missing workers?","summary":"Automation, productivity and immigration as substitutes for missing workers.","research_type":"exploratory_simulation","evidence_status":"modelled","series_slug":"population-futures","series_title":"Population Futures","version":"1.0","date_modified":"2026-09-28","links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-scarce-worker-economy","markdown":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-scarce-worker-economy/markdown","manuscript":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-scarce-worker-economy/manuscript","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/research/the-scarce-worker-economy","pdf":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-scarce-worker-economy.pdf"}}],"related_questions":["How can today's unemployment become tomorrow's pension pressure?","What happens to old-age income when early working years are spent unemployed?","What happens to a higher retirement age when younger workers are unemployed?","How do productivity and disability change the case for a later retirement age?","What replaces workers when population decline leaves labour scarce?","How do automation and immigration compare as responses to a smaller workforce?"],"claims":[{"id":"GSX:POP-002:C01","claim":"In these scenarios, private wealth at 60 is R4.84 million for a stable formal career, R3.99 million after a five-year youth shock, R3.09 million if entry waits until 30, R0.91 million for a mostly informal career, and R0.15 million under persistent exclusion. The amounts are constant 2026 rand and are anchored to the same R30,000 monthly opportunity at age 25.","study_id":"GSX:POP-002","study_title":"Today’s Unemployment Is Tomorrow’s Pension Crisis","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:POP-003:C01","claim":"In the average scenario, raising the comparison retirement age from 60 to 65 produces a cumulative modelled public gain of R213 billion for a one-million-person cohort. Age 70 produces R369 billion and age 75 produces R448 billion. The last five-year step adds R79 billion, about half the gain from moving from 65 to 70.","study_id":"GSX:POP-003","study_title":"Does Raising the Retirement Age Actually Work?","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work/claims/C01"},{"id":"GSX:POP-010:C01","claim":"In the average case, a smaller resident workforce can still coincide with real GDP at an index of 151, because output per worker rises about 57 percent. The total workforce ends at 11.60 million after 75,000 young immigrants a year and 700,000 additional older workers.","study_id":"GSX:POP-010","study_title":"The Scarce-Worker Economy","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-scarce-worker-economy/claims/C01"}],"assumptions":[{"id":"GSX:POP-003:A02","name":"Average labour-market case","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-003","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work"},{"id":"GSX:POP-010:A02","name":"Average response","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-010","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-scarce-worker-economy"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:A01","name":"Common earning opportunity","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-002","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"},{"id":"GSX:POP-003:A03","name":"Continuous private saver","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-003","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:A02","name":"Formal saving and return","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-002","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"},{"id":"GSX:POP-010:A01","name":"Hypothetical starting scale","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-010","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-scarce-worker-economy"},{"id":"GSX:POP-010:A03","name":"Occupation mismatch","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-010","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-scarce-worker-economy"},{"id":"GSX:POP-002:A03","name":"Work histories","sensitivity":"high","study_id":"GSX:POP-002","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis"}],"datasets":[{"id":"D01","title":"Today’s Unemployment Is Tomorrow’s Pension Crisis","study_id":"GSX:POP-002","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/todays-unemployment-is-tomorrows-pension-crisis/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"Does Raising the Retirement Age Actually Work?","study_id":"GSX:POP-003","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/does-raising-the-retirement-age-actually-work/data"},{"id":"D01","title":"The Scarce-Worker Economy","study_id":"GSX:POP-010","href":"https://greyscienx.com/research/population-futures/the-scarce-worker-economy/data"}],"links":{"html":"https://greyscienx.com/topics/unemployment","json":"https://greyscienx.com/api/v1/topics/unemployment"}}