Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #456 of 1,000

P0003

Small bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 30,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 492

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 508

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 272Deviation -R 1 235

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 508. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 913

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 546 to R 2 467
Finished ahead: 284 / 1,000 (28,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #412 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,39% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 2.019
Mean bets / session: 3.885
Loss multiplier: 1.0358×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 50,9% / 54,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 1 66847 wagers · RTP 74,64%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 40742 wagers · RTP 70,04%

BlackjackR 1 31538 wagers · RTP 92,13%

Craps / DiceR 59217 wagers · RTP 120,61%

American RouletteR 44513 wagers · RTP 60,67%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 41112 wagers · RTP 24,57%

Lottery / JackpotR 34510 wagers · RTP 20,87%

CrashR 3349 wagers · RTP 92,96%

BaccaratR 3139 wagers · RTP 128,87%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1384 wagers · RTP 106,88%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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