Total virtual wagered
R 20 157 766101 422 settled wagersExperiment 01 · Completed · Protocol v1.0.0
One thousand players started with the same R10,000. Their results did not stay equal.
The policies differed, every wager was recorded and each result was tested against 1,000 independently seeded alternatives.
Calendar time181 shared simulated days
Bankroll monthOne R10,000 allocation episode
Net P&LCurrent bankroll minus every allocation
RTPGross payouts divided by stakes
The first result
What happened in the visible world
The simulation ran through . Every measure includes all 1,000 policies.
Paid to synthetic players
R 18 588 773House result
R 1 568 993Exactly − aggregate player wager P&LActual RTP
92,22%95,56% weighted theoretical RTPPlayers ahead
227 / 1,00022,7%Players behind
773 / 1,00077,3%Ruined at least once
26 / 1,0002,6%Used all six allocations
0 / 1,0000,0%Over six months
The house advantage accumulated
The full population
Outcomes spread widely
-R 20KFinal P&LR 70K
A result is not a verdict
The winners faced 1,000 alternate worlds.
Each policy was rerun 1,000 times. A winner in the visible world could still have a negative median result across all worlds.
| Rank / policy | Cohort | Observed P&L | Expected P&L | Across-world median | Ahead across worlds | Wagers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1P0472 | Large bets, frequent | R 69 862 | -R 4 656 | -R 9 961 | 188 / 1,000 (18,8%) | 227 |
| #2P0426 | Large bets, frequent | R 52 096 | -R 2 753 | -R 9 711 | 234 / 1,000 (23,4%) | 103 |
| #3P0235 | Medium bets, frequent | R 50 520 | -R 3 001 | -R 5 656 | 187 / 1,000 (18,7%) | 201 |
| #4P0946 | Random control | R 46 043 | -R 1 012 | -R 3 479 | 289 / 1,000 (28,9%) | 51 |
| #5P0695 | Loss-chasing | R 45 910 | -R 6 934 | -R 9 744 | 196 / 1,000 (19,6%) | 143 |
| #996P0659 | Loss-chasing | -R 15 874 | -R 3 901 | -R 9 797 | 189 / 1,000 (18,9%) | 122 |
| #997P0446 | Large bets, frequent | -R 17 807 | -R 1 447 | -R 9 976 | 251 / 1,000 (25,1%) | 260 |
| #998P0498 | Large bets, frequent | -R 19 991 | -R 2 059 | -R 9 909 | 258 / 1,000 (25,8%) | 232 |
| #999P0424 | Large bets, frequent | -R 19 995 | -R 1 220 | -R 9 965 | 246 / 1,000 (24,6%) | 226 |
| #1000P0466 | Large bets, frequent | -R 19 996 | -R 1 381 | -R 13 702 | 282 / 1,000 (28,2%) | 239 |
What the result means
A losing game can still produce striking winners.
The house won in aggregate, yet 227 policies finished ahead in this realised world. Volatility disperses short-run results around a negative expected value.
The replication test asks whether any leading policy remained unusual when the random path changed.
See the alternate worlds →Research boundary
No one can play this experiment.
The balances are fictional. The site accepts no deposits, withdrawals or wagers and offers no prizes, tips or operator links.
Read the safety and ethics review →