Total virtual wagered
R 20 157 766101 422 settled wagersCompleted local reference world · Protocol v1.0.0
1,000 synthetic players entered with identical R10,000 bankrolls.
Their policies differed. Every wager was recorded. One realised path is shown beside 1,000 independently seeded alternatives.
Calendar time181 shared simulated days
Bankroll monthOne R10,000 allocation episode
Net P&LCurrent bankroll minus every allocation
RTPGross payouts divided by stakes
Generated result · not a layout example
The visible world
Simulation complete through . Denominators include all 1,000 policies, including inactive policies.
Paid to synthetic players
R 18 588 773House result
R 1 568 993Exactly − aggregate player wager P&LActual RTP
92,22%95,56% weighted theoretical RTPPlayers ahead
227 / 1,00022,7%Players behind
773 / 1,00077,3%Ruined at least once
26 / 1,0002,6%Used all six allocations
0 / 1,0000,0%Exposure over time
House result accumulated
All policies shown
A wide outcome distribution
-R 20KFinal P&LR 70K
One path is not a policy verdict
Visible winners meet their alternate worlds.
The ranking uses allocation-adjusted lifetime P&L. Each policy is rerun 1,000 times; a positive visible result can coexist with a negative across-world median.
| Rank / policy | Cohort | Observed P&L | Expected P&L | Across-world median | Ahead across worlds | Wagers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1P0472 | Large bets, frequent | R 69 862 | -R 4 656 | -R 9 961 | 188 / 1,000 (18,8%) | 227 |
| #2P0426 | Large bets, frequent | R 52 096 | -R 2 753 | -R 9 711 | 234 / 1,000 (23,4%) | 103 |
| #3P0235 | Medium bets, frequent | R 50 520 | -R 3 001 | -R 5 656 | 187 / 1,000 (18,7%) | 201 |
| #4P0946 | Random control | R 46 043 | -R 1 012 | -R 3 479 | 289 / 1,000 (28,9%) | 51 |
| #5P0695 | Loss-chasing | R 45 910 | -R 6 934 | -R 9 744 | 196 / 1,000 (19,6%) | 143 |
| #996P0659 | Loss-chasing | -R 15 874 | -R 3 901 | -R 9 797 | 189 / 1,000 (18,9%) | 122 |
| #997P0446 | Large bets, frequent | -R 17 807 | -R 1 447 | -R 9 976 | 251 / 1,000 (25,1%) | 260 |
| #998P0498 | Large bets, frequent | -R 19 991 | -R 2 059 | -R 9 909 | 258 / 1,000 (25,8%) | 232 |
| #999P0424 | Large bets, frequent | -R 19 995 | -R 1 220 | -R 9 965 | 246 / 1,000 (24,6%) | 226 |
| #1000P0466 | Large bets, frequent | -R 19 996 | -R 1 381 | -R 13 702 | 282 / 1,000 (28,2%) | 239 |
Interpretation
Negative expectation still produces conspicuous winners.
The aggregate result favoured the house, but 227 policies finished ahead in this realised world. That is not a contradiction. Volatility spreads short-run outcomes around a negative expected value.
The replication laboratory asks the harder question: did a leading policy remain unusual under new random paths, or did its rank mostly reflect one lucky draw history?
Open the replication laboratory →Research boundary
This is not playable.
Balances are fictional and have no cash value. There are no deposits, withdrawals, prizes, visitor wagers, tips, operator links, or claims that a staking system beats the house.
Read the safety and ethics review →