Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #417 of 1,000

P0011

Small bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 39,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 968

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 032

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 298Deviation -R 734

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 032. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 815

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 1 945 to R 1 748
Finished ahead: 255 / 1,000 (25,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #400 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,21% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.877
Mean bets / session: 5.98
Loss multiplier: 1.0242×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,4% / 37,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 1 907100 wagers · RTP 118,51%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 08556 wagers · RTP 60,32%

Lottery / JackpotR 57530 wagers · RTP 14,26%

Virtual Sports BettingR 36519 wagers · RTP 49,82%

CrashR 36018 wagers · RTP 88,96%

BlackjackR 32917 wagers · RTP 94,83%

American RouletteR 27714 wagers · RTP 92,06%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 25713 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 23812 wagers · RTP 124,37%

Craps / DiceR 22111 wagers · RTP 99,55%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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