Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #626 of 1,000

P0014

Small bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 20,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 801

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 199

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 527Deviation -R 2 672

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 199. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 811

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 137 to R 6 272
Finished ahead: 254 / 1,000 (25,4%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #524 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,58% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 2.15
Mean bets / session: 5.28
Loss multiplier: 1.0013×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 38,9% / 52,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Three-Reel SlotR 3 25567 wagers · RTP 64,64%

European RouletteR 2 70957 wagers · RTP 109,60%

BaccaratR 2 32248 wagers · RTP 95,14%

BlackjackR 1 24825 wagers · RTP 87,18%

CrashR 1 05322 wagers · RTP 99,05%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 93119 wagers · RTP 6,02%

Lottery / JackpotR 65714 wagers · RTP 12,18%

Craps / DiceR 62013 wagers · RTP 104,19%

Virtual Sports BettingR 58312 wagers · RTP 38,72%

American RouletteR 47210 wagers · RTP 48,73%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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