Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #139 of 1,000

P0037

Small bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 82,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 064

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 064

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 686Deviation R 1 750

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 064. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 843

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 788 to R 4 879
Finished ahead: 245 / 1,000 (24,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #524 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,49% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 2.074
Mean bets / session: 5.944
Loss multiplier: 1.0104×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 47,4% / 54,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 3 90373 wagers · RTP 149,24%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 88753 wagers · RTP 132,32%

Craps / DiceR 2 62549 wagers · RTP 112,61%

BaccaratR 1 54728 wagers · RTP 101,40%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 17421 wagers · RTP 39,01%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 16021 wagers · RTP 9,40%

CrashR 1 00819 wagers · RTP 69,57%

BlackjackR 87516 wagers · RTP 77,37%

American RouletteR 81115 wagers · RTP 131,20%

Virtual Sports BettingR 59611 wagers · RTP 79,13%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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