Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #576 of 1,000

P0040

Small bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 32,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 484

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 516

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 599Deviation -R 1 917

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 516. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 972

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 577 to R 3 072
Finished ahead: 175 / 1,000 (17,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #540 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,45% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.752
Mean bets / session: 4.974
Loss multiplier: 1.0237×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 38,7% / 62,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Lottery / JackpotR 1 72244 wagers · RTP 19,28%

European RouletteR 1 47639 wagers · RTP 57,59%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 27134 wagers · RTP 75,57%

American RouletteR 81521 wagers · RTP 124,29%

BlackjackR 66717 wagers · RTP 96,85%

CrashR 63517 wagers · RTP 124,84%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 52513 wagers · RTP 5,90%

Craps / DiceR 45712 wagers · RTP 122,98%

BaccaratR 37110 wagers · RTP 90,30%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3359 wagers · RTP 70,23%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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