Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #592 of 1,000

P0043

Small bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 3,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 315

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 685

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 360Deviation -R 2 326

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 685. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 040

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 564 to R 2 779
Finished ahead: 255 / 1,000 (25,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #432 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,31% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 2.005
Mean bets / session: 5.75
Loss multiplier: 1.0191×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 40,6% / 54,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 2 06978 wagers · RTP 20,93%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 45454 wagers · RTP 83,70%

BlackjackR 1 45055 wagers · RTP 95,10%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 66025 wagers · RTP 26,82%

Lottery / JackpotR 61822 wagers · RTP 9,39%

CrashR 54920 wagers · RTP 176,23%

Craps / DiceR 48918 wagers · RTP 74,85%

Virtual Sports BettingR 37613 wagers · RTP 73,15%

BaccaratR 32212 wagers · RTP 131,68%

American RouletteR 1967 wagers · RTP 102,55%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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