Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #457 of 1,000

P0048

Small bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 45,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 489

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 511

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 369Deviation -R 1 142

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 511. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 358

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 933 to R 3 857
Finished ahead: 243 / 1,000 (24,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #467 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,54% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 2.01
Mean bets / session: 3.304
Loss multiplier: 1.0359×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,0% / 42,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Three-Reel SlotR 1 65435 wagers · RTP 73,64%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 20825 wagers · RTP 92,18%

European RouletteR 1 19026 wagers · RTP 30,34%

CrashR 80217 wagers · RTP 203,21%

Craps / DiceR 66814 wagers · RTP 101,95%

BaccaratR 57012 wagers · RTP 96,49%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4259 wagers · RTP 33,65%

BlackjackR 4159 wagers · RTP 45,06%

Lottery / JackpotR 3858 wagers · RTP 24,42%

American RouletteR 3127 wagers · RTP 45,19%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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