Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #468 of 1,000

P0058

Small bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 23,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 419

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 581

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 282Deviation -R 1 299

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 581. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 854

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 240 to R 2 642
Finished ahead: 298 / 1,000 (29,8%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #407 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,42% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.534
Mean bets / session: 4.402
Loss multiplier: 1.0222×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 37,1% / 58,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Three-Reel SlotR 1 41136 wagers · RTP 78,84%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 20731 wagers · RTP 94,73%

European RouletteR 1 13729 wagers · RTP 91,47%

CrashR 57615 wagers · RTP 53,56%

Craps / DiceR 45612 wagers · RTP 99,56%

American RouletteR 3589 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3128 wagers · RTP 23,72%

BlackjackR 2978 wagers · RTP 89,90%

BaccaratR 2837 wagers · RTP 70,32%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1825 wagers · RTP 21,98%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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