Research simulation · fictional money · no deposits, prizes or visitor wagers
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Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #252 of 1,000

P0074

Small bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 70,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 891

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 109

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 202Deviation R 93

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

P0074 cumulative P&L by calendar monthMonth-six visible P&L -R 109. Bankroll allocations used: 1.
Month-six visible P&L -R 109. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 621

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile
-R 1 625 to R 2 636
Finished ahead
257 / 1,000 (25,7%)
At least one ruin
0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank
#373 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake
0,31% of bankroll
Sessions / week
1.773
Mean bets / session
3.194
Loss multiplier
1.0184×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win
48,7% / 54,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Three-Reel SlotR 86729 wagers · RTP 155,25%
BaccaratR 86129 wagers · RTP 83,39%
European RouletteR 78726 wagers · RTP 81,19%
Craps / DiceR 44915 wagers · RTP 109,13%
Virtual Sports BettingR 41614 wagers · RTP 167,24%
High-Volatility Video SlotR 39113 wagers · RTP 45,01%
BlackjackR 2398 wagers · RTP 97,07%
American RouletteR 2097 wagers · RTP 0,00%
Lottery / JackpotR 1796 wagers · RTP 0,00%
CrashR 1234 wagers · RTP 93,50%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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