Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #372 of 1,000

P0103

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 1,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 371

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 629

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 75Deviation -R 554

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 629. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 202

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 527 to R 422
Finished ahead: 221 / 1,000 (22,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #287 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.399
Mean bets / session: 2.005
Loss multiplier: 1.0007×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 36,4% / 44,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 2216 wagers · RTP 66,06%

Lottery / JackpotR 2136 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1785 wagers · RTP 40,45%

Three-Reel SlotR 742 wagers · RTP 75,68%

American RouletteR 742 wagers · RTP 100,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 732 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 692 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 381 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 371 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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