Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #231 of 1,000

P0107

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 77,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 981

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 19

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 45Deviation R 25

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 19. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 212

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 511 to R 302
Finished ahead: 212 / 1,000 (21,2%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #289 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,48% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.428
Mean bets / session: 1.183
Loss multiplier: 1.0233×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 42,8% / 32,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BaccaratR 1874 wagers · RTP 99,47%

Craps / DiceR 1413 wagers · RTP 170,21%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 952 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 912 wagers · RTP 128,10%

Lottery / JackpotR 481 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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