Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #186 of 1,000

P0119

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 88,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 255

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 255

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 62Deviation R 317

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 255. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 302

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 820 to R 760
Finished ahead: 225 / 1,000 (22,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #313 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,53% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.436
Mean bets / session: 2.235
Loss multiplier: 1.0104×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 46,0% / 33,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 57811 wagers · RTP 176,82%

BaccaratR 2565 wagers · RTP 99,61%

Craps / DiceR 1593 wagers · RTP 64,15%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1553 wagers · RTP 52,10%

Lottery / JackpotR 1052 wagers · RTP 97,14%

BlackjackR 1032 wagers · RTP 200,00%

American RouletteR 531 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 521 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 521 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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