Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #312 of 1,000

P0122

Small bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 45,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 648

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 352

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 74Deviation -R 278

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 352. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 319

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 833 to R 831
Finished ahead: 206 / 1,000 (20,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #316 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 0,51% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.35
Mean bets / session: 2.602
Loss multiplier: 1.0065×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 32,7% / 34,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Lottery / JackpotR 2485 wagers · RTP 39,52%

CrashR 1984 wagers · RTP 31,57%

American RouletteR 1012 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1002 wagers · RTP 125,00%

Craps / DiceR 511 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 491 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 491 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 491 wagers · RTP 223,73%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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